A terrorist marketing blitz?

A week ago, an audiotape featuring the soothing tones of Osama bin Laden surfaced. Last Tuesday, Zarqawi showed up on a video portraying him in a number of militaristic settings.

And just this Saturday, a video featuring Al Qaeda #2 Zawahiri surfaced.

Obviously an Al Qaeda propaganda blitz is underway. However, I do wonder if we are seeing signs of a renewed alliance between Iran and Al Qaeda, and I wonder if Iran played a role in suggesting the brain trust of AQ take to the airwaves at this time.

Consider, these three tapes appeared in the week the UN Security Council-imposed deadline of April 28 came and went, and the week the IAEA released another report on Iran.

Iran has not been shy about threatening retaliation if attacked. Is Iran preparing for possible counterattacks by enlisting the aid of Al Qaeda?

Regime Change Iran points to an article from Asharq Al-Awsat discussing Iran's plans for a response if attacked, plans which are sobering.

Is the sudden conjunction of three Al Qaeda videos at a time when Iran is under increasing international pressure a sign AQ may play a part in these plans?

Eight fundamentalist Islamist organizations have received large sums of money in the last month from the Iranian intelligence services, as part of a project to strike U.S military and economic installations across the Middle East Asharq Al-Awsat has learned.

The plan, which also includes the carrying out of suicide operations targeting US and British interests in the region, as well as their Arab and Muslim allies, in case Iran is attacked, was drawn up by a number of experts guerilla warfare and terrorist operations, and was revealed by a senior source in the Iranian armed forces' joint chief of staff headed by the veterinary doctor Hassan Firouzabadi,

The source added that the forces of the Revolutionary Guards’ al Quds Brigades, under Brigadier General Qassim Suleimani is responsible for coordinating and providing logistical support for the groups taking part in the execution of the plan, codenamed al Qiyamah the Islamic word for "Judgment Day".

The plan includes three steps, which Asharq al Awsat has examined in earlier reports. The source gave more details about how the plan will be implemented. He said, “Most of Iran’s visitors in the last four months, including the leaders of revolutionary groups in Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon, as well as the heads of Hezbollah cells in the Persian Gulf and Europe and North America were asked, when they met with the Iranian intelligence minister Gholamhossein Mohseni Ezhei and his aides: are you ready to defend the Islamic revolution and vilayat e faqih? If you agree to take part in the great jihad, what would you need to be ready for the great fight?

Amongst the leaders who visited were the head of one of the Iraqi armed group who was very clear and honest. He said his men would transform Iraq into a hell for the Americans if Iran were attacked.

The source also said that the military training camps of the Guards were opened for the fighters of the Mehdi army in Iran to receive the necessary training. Iran had also increased its financial assistance to Moqtada al Sadr to more than 20 million dollars.

The same applied to Islamic Jihad in Palestine which has received large sums of money, large quantities of arms and military training for its cadres in Isfahan, including street fighting methods.

As for the Lebanese Hezbollah, several loads of arms have been sent to; they include rockets, explosives, and guided missiles. Hezbollah's arsenal includes more than 10 thousand rockets short-range rockets and missiles including Fajr, Nour, Arash, Hadid.

An estimated 80 members underwent private training last year on how to carry out suicide operations from the air (through the use of kite planes) and undersea operations using submarines.

While denying that Hamas had joined the list of organizations ready to help Iran in its likely war with the U.S, the source indicated that the external success of the movement, which enjoys considerable Iranian support both financial and military, was strengthened following the latest visit by its leaders to Tehran. This was translated in the Palestinian masses’ support for Iran, against Israel and the United States .

According to Iran, the latest military plan includes:

1- A missile strike directly targeting the US bases in the Persian Gulf and Iraq , as soon as nuclear installations are hit.

2- Suicide operations in a number of Arab and Muslim countries against US embassies and missions and US military bases and economic and oil installations related to US and British companies. The campaign might also target the economic and military installations of countries allied with the United States .

3- Launch attacks by the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards and Iraqi fighters loyal to Iran against US and British forces in Iraq , from border regions in central and southern Iraq .

4- Hezbollah to launch hundreds of rockets against military and economic targets in Israel .

According to the source, in case the US military attacks continue, more than 50 Shehab-3 missiles will be targeted against Israel and the al Quads Brigades will give the go-ahead for more than 50 terrorists cells in Canada, the US and Europe to attack civil and industrial targets in these countries.

What about the last stage in the plan?

Here, the Iranian source hesitated before saying with worry; this stage might represent the beginning of a world war, given that extremists will seek to maximize civilian casualties by exploding germ and chemical bombs as well as dirty nuclear bombs across western and Arab cities.

Darfur Update

This past week, the UN finally agreed to sanctions in Sudan. Except, the sanctions weren't against any of the combatant groups. Four individuals are subject to sanctions, and the four aren't really at the very center of the conflict. In addition, two are on the side of the Sudanese government, and two are among the rebel groups fighting the Sudanese government.

Is the UN trying to see all parties are equally at fault? President Bush and the US Congress have used the word "genocide". Can that be so if the UN thinks there is plenty of blame to go around? This weak response from the UN is going to do little to stop the suffering in Darfur.

Worse, the UN is cutting food aid in the Darfur region because, it says, it is running short of funds.

The United Nations agency responsible for feeding three million people affected by the conflict in Darfur announced Friday that it would reduce by half the amount of food it distributes because it is short of money.

The World Food Program said it had received just one-third of the $746 million it asked for from donors for its operations in Sudan. As a result, rations of grain, beans, oil, sugar and salt for people in Darfur, where a brutal ethnic conflict has raged since 2003, will be halved, from 2,100 calories a day to 1,050.

A NYTimes article correctly points out that US options are running short.

As the violence in the Darfur region of Sudan grows ever more deadly, Bush administration officials now acknowledge that they have few if any promising policy options for containing the carnage.

If there is no agreement by Sunday on a way to resolve the crisis, the long-running peace talks are to be disbanded. But hopes for an agreement are low.

One proposal, to send 20,000 United Nations peacekeepers to Sudan, has been stymied by Khartoum's adamant opposition. Without the government's agreement, the Bush administration acknowledges, dispatching troops to Darfur would rightly be viewed as an invasion.

"Sudan policy has run off the road into a ditch," said John Prendergast, a former senior Africa specialist for the government.

And as is so often the case in Africa, conflict rarely stays completely within borders. Here, Chad is being pulled into the chaos.

Chadian government troops are posted at key points along the border to halt what they say is a revolt by rebels based in Sudan. The soldiers wear red armbands to set them apart from the rebels, who wear similar uniforms and have an equally aggressive driving style, roaring through villages in pickup trucks, leaving behind clouds of billowing dust.

The insurgents, who are fighting to topple Chadian President Idriss Deby, represent at least 12 groups united under several coalitions. To make matters even more dizzying, some of them are Deby's estranged relatives, including a set of twin nephews.

Chad blames the Sudanese, saying they back the insurrection, an allegation that Sudan denies. An African Union investigation found this week that many of the captured attackers who invaded the capital April 13 had Sudanese and Central African Republic identification and said they were conscripted to fight by Sudan, which Sudan denies.

Sudan blames the Chadians, saying they support a different group of rebels in the Darfur region of western Sudan, some of whom have offices and villas in Chad's capital, N'Djamena.

And Chadians tend to blame France, Chad's former colonial power, which they accuse of being involved in the violence by backing the president.

Here in the inhospitable, rugged and lunar-like terrain of eastern Chad, where refugees huddle under thorn trees, two things are certain: The chaos in Darfur has extended deep into Chad, and a rapidly increasing number of civilians continue to suffer in one of Africa's most complex crises.

Across Africa, conflicts tend to spill across national borders and destabilize entire regions. Fighting in the central African country of Congo, for example, has flared off and on for about a decade, at times drawing in more than a dozen rebel groups backed by several neighboring countries.

The world community is not acting as if time is short. Because, for diplomats in tony salons, it isn't short for them. They'll still have their gourmet dinners and fine wines and operas.

But for the refugees in Darfur, it is going to be a long, terrible summer.

The Great Game is afoot in Central Asia

This week, President Bakiyev of Kyrgyzstan met with Russia's President Putin in Moscow. The meeting underscored an effort underway to gradually peel the Central Asian nations away from the US and into the orbit of Russia and China.

In the wake of 9/11, the US moved into bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to support the war effort in Afghanistan. However, after a crackdown in May 2005 in Andijan, Uzbekistan, that some reports say killed hundreds, the US severely critized Uzbek President Karimov, and last July Karimov asked the US to leave. The last US flight left that base in November.

Now, Kyrgyzstan is asking for a significantly higher rent from the US in order to remain on the base. Russia and China are trying to draw Bakiyev away from the US, to drive the US military out of the region.

At the same time, Moscow and Beijing make no secret of their interest in the faster withdrawal of the American contingent from the republic. Ganci air base located here remains the only military US foothold in the Central Asia. The further destiny of the base depends on the readiness of Washington to comply with the requirement of Bishkek regarding the increase of payment for its use. This was announced by Kurmanbek Bakiyev five days prior to his arrival in Moscow. However the growth of the economic activity of Russia and China in Kyrgyzstan can fully compensate the refusal of financial receipts from America. Experience of the neighbouring Uzbekistan particularly eloquently testifies to it.

A deadline of June 1 has been set to decide on the matter of rent.

Nine months after an Asian bloc dominated by Russia and China moved to set a time limit on the U.S. military presence in Central Asia, the last American airbase in the highly strategic region may be at risk.

If agreement is not reached by June 1 on a demand for a substantial increase in rent, the U.S. presence at Kyrgyzstan's Manas airbase will be terminated, the country's president, Kurmambek Bakiyev, has warned.

Bakiyev has spoken of a 100-fold increase in rent, to around $200 million a year, although other officials have quoted smaller figures. $200 million would be almost half of Kyrgyzstan's total annual budget.

Located at the airport in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, the airbase was established late in 2001, after al Qaeda attacked the U.S.

The "Asian bloc" referred to above is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This group was first formed in June 2001 with members Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The group primarily fosters trade cooperation, but also touches on other areas such as anti-terrorism efforts.

Last week, full membership was granted to Iran, Pakistan and India, who previously had been observers to the group. This, even though as recently as January the group was saying these countries would not be admitted as full members. The crisis with Iran has apparently sparked a change in thinking.

Visiting Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mohammadi told Itar-TASS in Moscow that the membership expansion "could make the world more fair". And he spoke of building an Iran-Russia "gas-and-oil arc" by coordinating their activities as energy producing countries. Mohammadi also touched on Iran's intention to raise the issue of his country's nuclear program and its expectations of securing SCO support.

The timing of the SCO decision appears to be significant. By the end of April the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to report to the United Nations Security Council in New York regarding Iran's compliance with the IAEA resolutions and the Security Council's presidential statement, which stresses the importance of Iran "reestablishing full, sustained suspension of uranium-enrichment activities".

The SCO membership is therefore a lifeline for Iran in political and economic terms. The SCO is not a military bloc but is nonetheless a security organization committed to countering terrorism, religious extremism and separatism. SCO membership would debunk the US propaganda about Iran being part of an "axis of evil".

Notice, however, that with the new additions, Afghanistan, home to the United States and NATO's little adventure, will be virtually surrounded by SCO member nations.

(Turkmenistan has not joined, as it maintains a stance of neutrality, but there certainly has been pressure on Turkmenistan to join the SCO.)

This is not by accident. Russia and China are making an effort to diminish US influence in the region by drawing together a bloc that can stand against a US presence. (And for Russia, keeping China close in a mutual membership helps prevent China from making independent deals with all these nations that could undercut Russia's energy sector.)

Above you'll note that energy deals are mentioned. The SCO will definitely seek to use oil and gas deals to tie members together.

The presence of India in the SCO is significant to US interests. However, India does not share a border with Afghanistan, and India, by necessity, is looking for energy partners in the region, partners that will mostly be SCO members.

This will be a challenge for the US, and for the nascent government in Afghanistan.

An excerpt above refers to the IAEA report on Iran. That report came out today. Vital Perspective has an excellent report on the contents. Among the highlights:

The IAEA report on the Iranian nuclear program is quite damning and points out the 20 years of Iran's deception and its total unwillingness to answer for conduct. It discloses that Iran has been working on advanced P-2 centrifuges – as Ahmadinejad bragged about last week – revealing a previously unknown secret track toward nuclear bomb fuel, outside of that which the IAEA had been following previously. P-2 centrifuges are more sophisticated and reliable, making it easier for Iran to ramp up the production of enriched uranium.

Their other work – on plutonium, recent successful work on the 164-centrifuge cascade and announcement last week of the production of enriched uranium – and their stated ambition to install 3,000 centrifuges over the next several months is extremely worrisome. You read it here first.

With just 1,500 centrifuges running in concert, Iran could produce enough fuel for a nuclear bomb in less than a year. Iranian officials have stated they will build a full-scale 3,000-centrifuge operation later this year, with the ultimate objective of deploying 54,000 centrifuges by the end of 2007.

Uncertain over the reaction from the US, Israel, and to a lesser extent Europe, Iran is seeking shelter in the loving arms of Russia and China who welcome any and all friend willing to oppose US power. The oil and gas produced by SCO members has a great deal of significance to Europe, and a nuclear-armed belligerent Iran would be an anchor for a fearsome pole of power seeking leverage over the West.

Given these growing challenges to our interests, who are President Bush and Congressional Republicans going after this week? Oil company execs. Yeesh.

In Search Of... XI

It's time for another installment of In Search Of... These are some of the more amusing web searches that have stumbled across my blog. (The previous installment is here.)

-hh how to build a tennis court
-mowgli hypnotized a turn on
-why is there a crescent moon shape on u.s. army ration cases?
-ant squishing
-2006 email address of abdul in russia
-trigger finger in children [this came from Saudi Arabia]
-information about hanna's suitcase
-free online word puzzle drag drop jigsaw games exhilarating
-kianpars sexy [this came from Iran]
-a free web online game that you are supposed to get every across the river
-how many hours is from 7:00 till 5:00 pm
-skanky hillbillies pics
-best hacker alive

Italian troops killed in Iraq

Three Italian soldiers, and a Romanian, were killed in a bomb attack in Nasiriyah.

Three Italian soldiers and a Romanian serving in Iraq have been killed when a bomb ripped through their convoy near Nasiriyah in the south of the country, the Italian defence ministry revealed.

The ministry had earlier said that three soldiers had been killed, but a fourth died in hospital shortly after the attack.

Leaders across the political spectrum in Italy condemned the attack, which occurred on the eve of the first meeting of parliament following a divisive general election.

Outgoing Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who had maintained Italian troops in Iraq in the face of strong public opposition, expressed his "profound pain" on learning of the attack.

Centre-left leader Romano Prodi, whose coalition unseated Berlusconi's in the elections, said the attack was a tragedy that "affects all of Italy."

No word on which group is responsible, but at Publius Pundit, Stefania Lapenna writes:

The Italian troops in Nassiryiah had made it clear to Mr. Prodi that they strongly disagree with an immediate withdrawal. It’s not a coincidence that our troops in Iraq have not voted for Prodi.

Who are the communists in Prodi’s coalition already blaming for the attack? Yes, they’re blaming Bush and Berlusconi.

What should I add more but outrage and disgust?

I don’t hesitate to claim that the terrorists may have thought that by killing our soldiers today they will force Prodi to play the dhimmi he really is and withdraw the troops immediately.

Unfortunately, this is what he’ll do.

Indeed, Italy has made its choice, electing someone who has said he will withdraw Italy's troop soon.

Has Italy forgotten another terrible attack on Italian troops in Nasiriyah in 2003?

Italian military headquarters in the southern Iraqi city of Nasiriyah were blown up November 12 by terrorists who drove a truck through the main entrance to the former chamber of commerce compound bearing more than 800 pounds of explosives. An unusual feature of this worst attack on US allies in Iraq, 30 Italians and Iraqis were killed, was the fact that the Italian leadership had been warned three times by their intelligence officers of an imminent attack on the country's contingent in the city.

There was evidence that attack involved Ansar Al-Islam, a terrorist group that took root in Europe, and Italy in particular, after the initial US invasion of Iraq drove it out of northern Iraq. The group formed a recruiting network which funneled fighters to Iraq, and these fighters were known to have attacked Italian troops.

Italy has seen up close the scourage of Islamic terrorism. Cities like Milan have become centers for the terrorist networks. Militants recruited in Italy attacked Italians. And yet, the Italian people chose to retreat from a firm stand against terrorism. These soldiers killed today served a government that wants to run away from the fight.

Just as disconcerting is this report:

In a telephone conversation with Romano Prodi on Wednesday [Iranian] Vice-President Parviz Davudi congratulated him for being elected as Italian prime minister and said that Iran and Italy can play a special role in promoting world peace and justice by using their political, economic, and cultural potentials.

Iran and Italy can fight terrorism and drug trafficking and help resolve the issues of Iraq and Afghanistan, Davudi added.

Prodi also said that the Islamic Republic plays a key role in promoting security and stability in the Middle East.

Italy is to expand ties with Iran in all areas, he added.

So, not content to withdraw in the fight against terrorism, Italy will cozy up to world's chief sponsor of terrorism.

Among other groups, Iran has provided support for Ansar al-Islam, the group involved in killing so many Italians in Nasiriyah.

What can Italy be thinking?

Germany and Russia: A one- or two-way partnership?

It's hardly a non-aggression pact, but there is news today illustrating just how closely Germany is tying its energy sector to Russia.

A high-profile summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel ended today with the two countries signing a major gas deal.

The agreement gives Germany's BASF the right to take part in the development of a large gas field in Western Siberia with Russia's Gazprom.

The Yuzhno-Russkoye gas field will feed a new gas pipeline that will deliver Russian gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea.

This actually isn't a new deal. It goes back to the summit a year ago between then German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Russian President Vladimir Putin that formalized the deal to build the North European Gas Pipeline.

BASF is helping build the pipeline, and now BASF will help develop the field from which the gas for the NEGP will come.

The pipeline has been criticized for its cost, and the route under the North Sea, instead of a cheaper overland route, only adds to the cost. In bypassing Easter European countries, there are fears Russia can squeeze their gas supplies and also make Germany dangerously dependent on Russian gas.

In analyzing the deal a year ago, Stratfor had this to say:

Deals signed at the summit total a sizable $4.9 billion, but $2 billion of that is earmarked for the as-yet-theoretical Baltic Sea pipeline, which would ship Russian natural gas under the Baltic Sea to northern Germany. The leading -- and unrealistically low -- price estimate puts the pipeline's cost at about $5.7 billion. This would make natural gas imported through it prohibitively expensive relative to natural gas shipped via more conventional land-only routes.

The Russians want German companies to pay for the project. However, it makes more sense to tweak the existing export network via Belarus and Ukraine for a fraction of the cost -- and much bigger returns. For example, Gazprom, the Russian state natural gas firm, itself indicates that a mere $2 billion investment into the Ukrainian transport infrastructure would increase Russia's natural gas exports to Europe by more than the Baltic line could ship in toto.

The remaining $2.9 billion in deals are more promising. The first $1.9 billion would jointly develop high-speed trains for Russian use, while the remaining $1 billion would give German chemical firm BASF access to the 500 billion-cubic-meter (bcm) Yuzhno-Russkoye field. The deal is the first-ever German-Russian joint venture in Russia's natural gas upstream, finally giving some economic heft to the much-ballyhooed German-Russian energy partnership.

But $3.9 billion is not a lot to show from such an "historic" summit, and Yuzhno-Russkoye is not the sort of thing that will make the Germans go gaga for all things Russian. It is not so much that $1 billion is not a lot of money, or that Yuzhno-Russkoye is not a big step in Russo-German cooperation.

It is simply a question of scale.

Moscow controls some 40 percent of the world's known natural gas deposits. Gazprom has more natural gas reserves than all of the Western energy supermajors combined. In fact, Russia's Yamal Peninsula alone has more natural gas than all of North America. In comparison to that, Yuzhno-Russkoye is small potatoes. Also, Yuzhno-Russkoye is a virgin field, not hooked up to the Russian export network at present. If previous joint ventures -- where Gazprom tended to expect a free ride -- are any indication, BASF will have to put up most of the development costs itself (although considering Germany's interest in working with Russia, it will be quite happy to do so).

Compare that to a deal that the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies, a British/Dutch supermajor, is hammering out with Gazprom. Under the terms of an asset exchange that the two companies have agreed to in principle, Russian sources say, Shell will transfer 22 percent of shares at the Sakhalin-2 oil and natural gas project in exchange for a 50 percent-minus-one share of the Zapolyarnoye field.

The deal is heavenly for both players. Sakhalin-2 brings together several characteristics of intense interest to Gazprom: offshore production (in icy conditions, no less), oil production and liquefied natural gas (LNG). All are skill sets that Gazprom desperately wants to develop. In particular, Gazprom feels (correctly) that LNG expertise will allow it to tap the lucrative U.S. market -- but the company until now has refused to pay its way, preferring to threaten potential partners into developing LNG assets for it. Unsurprisingly, that has not worked particularly well. Now, however, Gazprom will be part of a consortium that already has completed drilling, built its LNG facility and signed production contracts. Gazprom can simply sit back and learn.

Shell, whose biggest problem of late has been beefing up its reserve sheet, comes out similarly well. The 3.3 trillion-cubic-meter Zapolyarnoye field is Gazprom's largest project since the Soviet breakup, and already produces some 100 bcm per year, mostly for export to Europe. If finalized, Shell's 50 percent share in Zapolyarnoye will increase the energy supermajor's natural gas holdings by two-thirds.

But isn't Germany Russia's new best friend? Why isn't Germany getting such plum deals?

The answer is simple: Russia does not need to bribe Germany to cooperate. Germany is already committed to its relationship with Russia.

In other words, Germany may be selling itself too cheaply in its desire to bring in the natural gas it needs. If BASF ends up shouldering much of the startup costs for this field, it's a win for Russia, and so they can afford to toss this deal to Germany.

This analysis would indicate BASF, and Germany, need these kinds of deals to address employment concerns.

The first reason for this is a refusal of the German leadership to use atomic energy for electricity production. The second reason is the stagnation of the German economy over the past decade, which has forced the country’s leaders and large economic structures to search for cheap and stable sources of energy carriers. Russia, with its huge stocks of oil and gas, being close to Germany geographically, represents a rather tempting economic partner.

The true value of the Hannover transaction can only be seen through the prism of German internal policy of the past years. Since Gerhard Schröder`s re-election to the chancellor's office in 2002, the weakness of his economic policy ("Agenda 2010") is becoming obvious. One of the main indications of the constantly deepening economic crisis is the rate of unemployment. By the beginning of 2005 it had reached 12%. For the first time since 1932, more than 5 million German citizens are clients of the labor registry office, more than 2 million belong to the "concealed unemployed" category, about one million lack a place of residence, and 85% of the working population express anxiety concerning their future.

A catastrophic drop in popularity of the ruling Social-Democratic Party (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands - SPD) is a direct consequence of this situation.

An April 2005 poll has shown that only 28% of potential voters support the SPD, while the opposing Christian Democrats Union (Christlich Demokratische Union - CDU) is supported by 46%.

Various extremist political forces are also gaining strength. The 2004 elections to the European Parliament, local elections to the parliament of the German province of Thuringia and elections to the local governments of 6 out of 16 provinces carried the first signs of upcoming electoral disaster for SPD.

The party has lost 2.8 million voters, receiving an average of only 21.5% of the votes.

On February 2005 SPD suffered another painful blow in the local elections to the parliament of the Schleswig-Holstein province. The SPD received only 38.7% of the votes against the CDU with 40.2%.

The close upcoming elections to the parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia on May 22 2005, are extremely important from SPD`s and Schröder`s point of view, for this is the most densely populated part of Germany.

But political forecasts do not foretell any luck to the Social Democrats.
Given this background, an increase in pressure on the SPD by the German Trade Union Confederation – DGB is observed. In 2004, leading political and trade-union figures already spoke openly about the confrontation between the unions and the Social Democrats.

The trade union associations of such industrial giants as Daimler-Chrysler, IG Metall, Siemens and BASF are in the avant-guard of the attack on the SPD.
In BASF`s case, after a massive wave of employee layoff (about 10,000 worldwide), active participation of the company's 28,000 German employees opposing the economic policy of the present political leadership has been provided by the agreement achieved in July, 2004 between the trade union and the management of BASF.

The agreement stipulated a constant salary bonus for all trade union members, its amount depending on the economic success of BASF.

Thus, the economic well being of the workers became dependent to a degree on the Schröder government’s support for the company's external economic policy.

In view of all the aforesaid, the Hannover agreement between BASF and "Gazprom", became possible due to the personal involvement of the chancellor, who is trying to split the German trade unions’ united front against the SPD.

Actually, providing BASF with the long-term prospective contract, and its 28,000 workers with their guaranteed bonus, the Social Democrats neutralized one of the strongest trade unions in the country, and also split DGB lines.

Concurrently, the German government relies on improvement of general macroeconomic parameters, by purchasing cheaper energy carriers, and by increasing BASF`s profits.
Leaders of the SPD hope that this will raise the party's popularity before the 2006 elections to the Bundestag.

In the end, Germany would seem to need Russia more than Russia needs Germany. Russia does seek investment to help develop its energy resources, but in return, Russia gets some serious leverage over other nations by making them dependent on Russian energy.

Germany believes that it might be able to use the gas it gets exclusively through the NEGP by, in turn, using it as leverage over these bypassed European nations as a reseller. However, what Gazprom did to Ukraine at the beginning of the year, in turning of its gas for a time, is going to become a real possibility in Germany the deeper it dives into Russian gas.

For this reason, European nations are reluctant to confront Russia over its protection of Iran in Iran's deliberately provoked confrontation with the West.

Always politics. When nations jockey to merge competing interests and goals, bets are made. However, by eschewing nuclear power, by allowing a growing unassimiliated Muslim population in its midst, by pursuing a diplomatic strategy with Iran that is all carrots and no sticks, by becoming increasingly dependent on Russian gas, Europe may have made a losing bet.

Always, always follow the money

It is the lifeblood of terrorism. If you did nothing but concentrate on sources of funding for terrorist groups, and on what nation-states do to secure energy supplies, you wouldn't miss too many important things in the world.

Close to a dozen companies with ties to Iraqi militias backed by Iran have been funnelling hundreds of millions of dollars from Iraq’s state funds to political groups, an independent watchdog announced in a recent report.

Up until now, 700 million dollars have been illegally transferred to the political groups allied to Tehran, the Monitoring and Watchdog Organisation announced.

The findings by the watchdog’s Treasury Committee were first reported on Tuesday in the weekly Dar-ol-Islam, the political journal of the Islamic Party of Iraq.

Eleven front companies were being used by the militias to receive state funding and equipment which was then being sold off.

The report also claims that the 11 companies were also being used to gather intelligence on government operations.

Three of the companies were based in Amman; one was based in Damascus; and the other seven were based in Dubai, Sharjeh, and Kuwait.

The report found that the front companies were being run by a number of officers in Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) who carried Iraqi passports.

The findings show that the companies had managed to sign several key agreements since becoming operational and had opened up bank accounts in Tehran and London.

India: a growing power

With its growing economy and strengthing military, India is a rising power in South Asia. Today there is news that India is taking another step toward becoming a world player.

Indian Prime Ministers visit to Tajikistan signifies India first step to becoming a true super power. India is to open its first overseas military base this year in the impoverished central Asian country of Tajikistan - a testament to its emerging status on the world stage.

According to media reports, The Indian air force will station up to two squadrons of MiG-29s at the refurbished former Soviet airbase of Farkhor more than 60 miles from the Tajik capital of Dushanbe, Jane's Defence Weekly said, citing defence officials. A control tower is already in place, Indian media reported.

India views the Central Asian nations as important to its national security, and has been involved militarily there before, especially since 9/11 in helping fight the war on terror.

In fact, India has already had a military presence at Farkhor for a few years.

However, this base in Tajikistan is more about projecting Indian power, and in particular, it is about the race for oil and gas supplies in Central Asia.

The base is a key location. Near the border with Afghanistan, it sits nestled up against the western slopes of the mountains in SW Tajkistan, at the end of flat bowl-shaped area that pushes east into the mountains, and opens up to the west into the rich Dauletabad oil and gas field of Turkmenistan.

It serves to "encircle" Pakistan in a sense. It puts Indian jets on the other side of Pakistan from India. Also, the aircraft are not that far from China. These nations will certainly keep a wary eye on India's military deployments. India is taking bold steps to put its military in key strategic positions.

For instance, the Turkemenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) gas pipeline project has been in the works for some time. The project was formalized in 2002 in Islamabad, and India was invited to participate in 2003. The pipeline would be extended to India.

The pipeline would run from the Dauletabad fields, through Afghanistan and into Pakistan, and then onto India. However, instability in Afghanistan casts a shadow over the project. With the Taliban in Afghanistan, the security of the pipeline is questionable. The pipeline would then run through Balochistan in Pakistan, and as readers here know, that province has its own brand of unrest, and existing pipelines there have already been attacked.

India is worried that with the pipeline passing through Pakistan first, Pakistan would be in a position to interdict the gas before it could get to India.

With this base at Farkhor, Indian forces would not be far from where the pipeline would enter Afghanistan, and so could be in a position, in the event of a crisis, to choke off the gas before it got to Pakistan.

In addition, if events Afghanistan and Pakistan remained so unstable that this pipeline route was infeasible, a possible alternative northern route could take the pipeline right near this bowl, and through Tajikistan and northern Afghanistan, into Pakistan from the north.

This RFE/RL article outlines the issues involved.

On the receiving end, India's reluctance to rely on gas from a pipeline crossing the territory of archrival Pakistan had proved to be a major stumbling block. However, the recent authorization given by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for his country to explore several possibilities to transport much-needed natural gas to India has rekindled interest in the TAP project.

Indian Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar told reporters in January that by looking at the region's map "you may accuse me of dreaming, but as a minister I am paid to dream." Aiyar added, "We have the Bangladesh-Burma [Myanmar] pipeline, we are looking at a pipeline from Iran that would cross Pakistan, and we want a pipeline from Turkmenistan that would cross Afghanistan and Pakistan," "Platts Energy Economist" reported on 1 February.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose country is eager to get the TAP project under way, told visiting Indian External Affairs Minister Kunwar Natwar Singh on 15 February that his country hopes New Delhi will look favorably at the trans-Afghan pipeline. A press release from Karzai's office indicated that pipeline would bring "significant economic benefit to Afghanistan and the region."

But before Karzai and his Indian and Pakistani partners begin to celebrate economic prosperity and a constructive new phase in the elusive New Delhi-Islamabad partnership, several stumbling blocks need to be cleared.

The stumbling blocks referred to are security in Afghanistan, and gas price hikes in Turkmenistan that involve Russia.

Another wrinkle to the Farkhor move involves electricity. Pakistan would like to get more electricity from Tajikistan, which was valuable hydroelectric resources. A strong presence in Tajikistan gives India the ability to disrupt Pakistan's power supply from Tajikistan.

All in all, a significant move for India.

Some thoughts on Kirkuk and Iran

C-Low had a couple of excellent comments in this post, and I thought I'd reply to them here, as he brings up some things worth paying attention to. His comments were:

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,18931927-23109,00.html

“IRAN was ready to share its nuclear technology with other countries, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said after talks with the visiting Sudanese president, state television reported.
"Iranian nuclear scientists can easily train other Islamic countries in uranium enrichment and nuclear fuel production," he was quoted as saying”

Iran Ayatollah Khamenei chief Mullah not only offers to share nuclear technology proliferation but offers such to SUDAN the very nation that just the other day Bin Laden requested all Jihadi’s to move to aid. Coincidence or organized effort?

A massive number of AQ organization leadership is safe in Iranian “house arrest” and the “my enemies enemy is my friend” logic plays between AQ and Iran more so than even most others.

On another issue what’s your take on this:

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq/articles/20060424.aspx

“Meanwhile, members of the pro-Iran Badr militia are showing up in the northern oil city of Kirkuk. That's odd, because Shia Arabs are a small minority up there,”

The above part specifically, I read somewhere else that even some Mahdi boys were yoked up in Kirkuk lately also which may explain partially that mysterious oil fire in Kirkuk. Maliki dropped out of the Saddam army because of the Iranian/Iraqi war. I wonder just how much of the Shia are going to side with Iran if/when we jump. I kinda thought the Badr had moved more to US by way of Sistani and their battling with Mehdi/Sadr but this report of them moving into Kirkuk makes me wonder if Iran is not pulling the strings.

I get the Turkey and even Iran moving troops to the border to fight their rebels at least on the Iran side those rebels I would imagine they are getting some assistance from US and maybe even assisting some SOF infiltration in the area. The Turkey side I would guess due to both some blowback from our support to the Iranian and Iraqi Kurds being diverted their way but also I would imagine they are at the sometime moving to reinforce their border with Iran in case we decide to act on Iran.

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/06/front2453851.0847222223.html

This article is interesting 250k sounds like more than just a rebel deterrence force I wonder what kind of mix that force is going to be and how much heavy mech force is in that?

Lot of activity on all side latley huh AQ messages, Iranian wildeyed statements, UN uselessness, toops moving here and thier, reports of this and that.

Here is another link with some more detail about the Sadr militia moves into Kirkuk.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/24/AR2006042401560.html?nav=hcmodule

Sounds to me like Iran positioning itself to strike at oil facilities in as many places as they can. Fox just confirmed that the Iranian Mullah has threatened to hit oil facilities around the world.

Why don’t the media ever ask the obvious question "how can Iran expect to attack US interest all over the world if they don’t have long range navy/air/missile assets with worldwide range? And if the obvious answer is terrorist how can we allow a nation that considers terrorist as their main weapon of retaliatory choice to have Nukes? Is their any cost or risk of action today comparable to the cost or risk of action tomorrow against a belligerent Nuclear armed Iran think how many cities will it cost not how many lives?"

I had the same question when Iran had its little visit with Sudan's president, and started talking about nuclear technology. Mere coincidence that Osama put out his little rant this week and happened to specifically mention Sudan? It does seem a bit like a marketing campaign is going on.

I think I've mentioned before as well, it seems like Iran is trying to portray itself as a champion for all of Islam, for Sunnis as well as Shiites. Sunni nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are nervous about a nuclear Iran as well, and Iran seems to be saying, no, we're all Muslims, we're doing all this for you too. Don't know how well that will fly, but Iran has gone out of its way to pretend to care about the Palestinians. Iran has been running all over the Middle East for months meeting with various Arab states. And now Sudan? I think Iran is trying to round up a nice posse for itself.

I too think the fact the Badr militia might be drifting into Kirkuk might have something to do with Iran's troubles with the Kurds in the NW corner of Iran. There has been unrest there, (see here for instance) and Iran may be setting up a way to hit back against the Kurds in Iraq who may be providing shelter for Iranian rebels.

As for al-Sadr, his militia has stirred up trouble in Kirkuk in the past. In February, he went around on a little tour ( I think designed to bolster his image), and in an interview with Al Jazeera he said Kirkuk should belong to all Iraq, and all should benefit from it. To me, that's a polite way of saying the Kurds should think twice before trying to claim it. So, since Sadr is also friendly with Iran, he might also be a tool to cause trouble there.

EStripes had much the same article on Saturday as the WaPo article you mention.

It's hard to believe folks like Sadr are so concerned about the plight of the Sunnis living in Kirkuk. As you well point out, surely some power politics at work.

Iran to world: "Drop Dead" Part II

Iran's top nuclear negotiator Dr. Ali Ardeshir Larijani, said today that Iran would consider withdrawing from the IAEA if sanctions are imposed. Larijani also once again warned that Iran might use oil as a weapon if pushed too far.

If you still harbor doubts that Iran would really use its nuclear program to build weapons, consider that Larijani is also the secretary-general of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, and hence Iran's national security chief. That Iran would put negotiations with the world in the hands of a security official ought to tell us that Iran views its security as tied to the nuclear program.

Larijani was once the head of the state-owned Radio and Television, and he is also a former commander in the Revolutionary Guard. In speaking to the Guard at the end of last year, Larijanu was quite defiant.

Speaking to Revolutionary Guard forces last Wednesday, Larijani put Iran's nuclear plans into broader context.

"Too many wrong signals were sent to the West [in the past two years]," Larijani said. "If Iran turns into a nuclear power, then no one dares to challenge it because they have to pay a heavy price."

A doctrine of "active political diplomacy" will increase Iranian power to "reach such a geopolitical position that makes others tolerate us," Larijani said. "Today it's time for resistance. Time passes, but we should not hesitate because a further waste of time is not to our benefit."

And today, Larijani is being defiant again. Last March 29, when the UN Security Council met on this matter, it set non-binding deadline for Iran to comply with the IAEA within a month. That deadline is up this Friday, and Iran is not showing signs of yielding.

It is curious that a couple weeks ago, on a program called Today's Encounter", which aired on Al Jazeera on April 10, Larijani, speaking in Persian, sang a different tune. (It was translated by the BBC Monitoring Service, but I don't have a link.)

[Larijani] In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate. Thank you for giving me this opportunity. The issue of the Iranian nuclear file gives a lesson to all countries, where peace and security should prevail and where people are supposed to live quietly. Iran is a country which shoulders its full international responsibilities. We are a member of the IAEA and we feel we have a responsibility towards our neighbours. We are sensitive to the pains of other peoples and we look for permanent security in the region...As I said, we are an IAEA member state and we have accepted the NPT. We consider this an international treaty that should be observed. As in the past, inspectors visit our nuclear facilities in Tehran and everywhere else. The IAEA's cameras are present. We have not committed any violation. Like any other IAEA member state, we have rights represented in possessing peaceful nuclear technology. Those who want to open their doors in violent directions must be careful. I am confident that the Iranian nuclear file can be solved through a positive channel. We are confident that through accurate and constructive dialogue we can solve this problem because we have nothing to hide and all our positions are monitored by the IAEA

The next day Larijani was in Saudi Arabia, meeting with officials there on security matters. The Saudis are no great friends of Iran, so it is curious that Iran has been making an effort to reach out to Arab nations since March 29. For instance, Rafsanjani visited Kuwait last week. There was a conference in Teheran devoted to expressing solidarity with the Palestinians.

All this may be an effort to pitch an argument to the Arabs that the United States is our mutual enemy, let us all band together at this time of confrontation. A nuclear Iran would greatly concern the Saudis, and Egypt, so Iran may be trying to assuage their fears. A darker interpretation is that Iran is preparing its terror networks in these countries.

Hence, the timing is curious that Osama bin Laden released a tape this week, and today Zarqawi released a videotape in which he appeared for the first time without covering his face.

Speculation here, but the recent developments in Iraq have not favored Iran's ambitions there. With Ibrahim Jaafari stepping aside as candidate for Prime Minister, a compromise candidate in the person of Jawad al-Maliki has stepped forward. Indications are that Maliki will not be Iran's stooge, but instead may break the deadlock that has existed in Iraq since the election, and start to bring peace between the various factions in Iraq.

A stable, democratic Iraq threatens Iran, and I do wonder if Iran whispered in certain ears that perhaps it was time for Osama and Zarqawi to speak out and try and stir up the pot.

Iran has been so belligerent in its push to develop nuclear weapons because it thinks it can. Europe has given every indication they are not willing to impose heavy sanctions on Iran. Russia and China have certainly been in Iran's corner. For its part, the United States has let Europe take the lead and has offered little more than rhetoric.

Iran believes its security is best served if the US is bogged down in Iraq, and not free to focus on Iran. As such a violent, unstable Iraq helps take the pressure off Iran. Zarqawi appeared amidst guns and ammunition and spoke of defeating the US in Iraq. Iran could not have been disappointed by Zarqawi's message.

Come Friday, the deadline will pass. The IAEA will make another report to the UN. The nations of the world will continue to dither, and barring a miracle, little will come of it.

It all comes down to whether or not the United States has the will to act now. Or not at all.

(Incidentally, I wrote of this before, but think back to when Iran allowed Denmark's mission in Teheran to be attacked, and toady Syria did the same in Damascus. The cartoons were great cover, but it is not outlandish to think Iran was looking ahead and sending Denmark a message. As things drag out, guess who will hold the presidency of the UN Security Council in June. Denmark.)

24 Day 5 1:00 AM - 2:00 AM

Awww, look, the graphic violence warning fell asleep. Poor thing. It's had a long, hard day.

The recaps give us the Cliff Notes version of the chase for the tape. Practice Essay Question: How is Audrey's love for Jack echoed in the porcelain pig Sir James gave to his niece just before the ball in Belching Hall?

As this episode begins its sleepwalk into madness, Jack is tying up Audrey. No, wait, he's applying a tourniquet. It appears to have done the trick. Jack says Henderson didn't sever the artery. Oh? Well, Henderson is not so handy with the knife, then. But, even if Henderson just cut the artery, isn't that pretty much game, set, and match? You don't actually have to sever an artery to cause reason for great concern.

Audrey is a trooper. Not a State Trooper, just a brave little soldier. Not a real US soldier, just a plucky soul. Not a disembodied spiritual...oh, never mind. She says to Jack "Do what you have to do."

Jack hears a phone ringing. A dead guy is not answering it, so Jack picks it up. Hey, that's Wexler! Why is he dead? Jack just clobbered him, he didn't kill him. So, did Henderson run into the building, see this unconscious guy, and just shoot him for no reason? I'm beginning to think Henderson is a real psychopath.

It's the SecDef on the phone. He's surprised that Wexler sounds so much like Jack. The SecDef explains that things didn't go so well with Logan. Apparently Logan said "I'm rubber, you're glue, everything you say bounces off of me and sticks to you," and Heller ended up being tossed out on his ear.

Jack angrily says "You betrayed me." Heller says "yeah, well, sorry about all that, but I did what I thought was best for THIS COUNTRY." Jack lies and says Audrey is fine. You'd think Jack could've rubbed Heller's nose in the mess a bit more and really made him feel bad by saying "Well, your betrayal led to Audrey getting all cut up. She nearly died. I saved her life. Thanks, Dad. Just for that, we're going to spend the holidays with my side of the family."

Instead, Jack calls Bill. He's looking for Chloe. Bill happens to have one in stock, and pretty much tells her entire life story up to that point, leaving out only her fourth grade romance with Stinky Worthington.

Jack says "Henderson left here ten minutes ago." Jack must be a little rattled, as Henderson only left about 5 minutes ago. He needs Chloe to fry up a CTU satellite stream. Chloe says no prob. She'll get in through a subnet and VPN something something so calls can't be traced. Chloe apparently is forgetting she tried ye olde VPN trick a short time ago, and Miles was able to break through that with little trouble.

Chloe sets to work, telling Bill what to do. She says "Hope you don't mind me bossing you around." Heh. Without Chloe, the plot would be the only comic relief in this show.

Chloe, being a 32nd level Technomage, digs through satellite data and immediately finds Henderson leaving the airport. (In a stolen car, I might add. Surely the military roadblocks will pick him up, right?)

Logan calls up Henderson. Again. After ignoring him for the entire show up until a couple hours ago, he's suddenly pretty chatty. Logan asks for what must be the 50th time by now, "Is Bauer dead?" And Henderson, who has failed yet again, merely says "No."

And Henderson is driving around *again*. This is starting to rival MST3K's rock climbing for levels of Deep Hurting. Perhaps they're going for a new Emmy in the technical categories, Achievement in Driving Around.

Henderson explains to Logan that he'll hang on to the tape for insurance, lest Logan get thoughts of making Henderson disappear. He'll keep the tape in a safe place, and it will surface only if Henderson happens to meet with an accident. (So, if some drunk runs a red light and T-bones Henderson, Logan is screwed by accident?)

Whoa!! Henderson just told Logan that perhaps someone will decide that Henderson needs to disappear, just as Cummings's "suicide" was necessary! Wow, so Logan arranged to have Cummings killed. That's quite a revelation.

Chloe has already found Henderson and has him on a live feed. I ask again, how does Chloe know Henderson is in that car? It's just a rectangular blip on the screen.

Jack is in pursuit of Henderson. They don't pass a single checkpoint. Then, Jack does a little combat driving and knocks Henderson off the road. Henderson plows into a....barn? A barn? Where is there a barn ten minutes from the Van Nuys airport? Did some farmer refuse to sell his land years ago, and now has a farm right smack in the middle of the vast LA megalopolis?

Somehow Jack is far enough behind now that Henderson has time to get out of his stolen car and take cover. (Perhaps the extra weight of the dead bank manager in the back seat slowed the car down.)

Henderson tries to make a limp for it, but Jack nabs him, uttering one of his favorite lines, "Put the gun down!"

And now, Henderson lets fly with yet another moment of insanity. He says a chopper has been trailing Heller since he left Logan, and if Henderson doesn't check in regularly with them, Heller will be killed.

Oh my. I've said before Henderson rivals Marwan in terms of amazing preparedness. Remember, Henderson just rustled up this new team of bad guys in the last hour or so. Never mind where they got *two* helicopters, or why. (I presume the other one is still back at the airport.) Just when did they go over this plan? They didn't even know Heller was in LA till an hour ago. So on the fly they put together this backup plan? This show has become a cartoon.

Jack says "Slowly walk towards me." Audrey takes a step. "No, not you, you ninny. Henderson." Ok, I made that up. Jack throws a pair of handcuffs to Buckaroo and says "Cuff yourself." Is that considered an expletive?

Jack gets Chloe on the horn and wants her to find Heller.

She technobabbles that she wants to scan in slices of three miles increments, and she patches Jack into a DoD database. Why? I don't understand any of this. They have no idea what car Heller is in. The SecDef wasn't planning to stop in LA, so there can't have been an official government car at Van Nuys airport. Come to think of it, we have no idea what car Heller is in.

Jack calls Heller and asks him if a helo has been tracking him. Now, how would Heller know that? Oh, I guess by looking out the window and seeing the helo flying right above him. Way to hang back and remain invisible, bad guys. And all of a sudden, a red dot starts dancing around Heller's chest. Heller says the baddies have a laser sight trained on him.

(The baddies don't know Heller is talking to Jack. Why would they give themselves away and turn their laser sight on Heller just at this moment?)

Heller does not want Jack to give up the tape just for him. He says "Don't let him go!" and then... what the bloody heck? Heller drives himself off a cliff. He, he, just sailed out there, he sailed right out there.

By now Chloe has technomagically found Heller's car and the helo with the satellite. Jack asks Chloe, out loud and right in front of Audrey, "Can you confirm Heller drove his car into a lake?" Chloe can confirm. Oh my. In his rant, Paul takes about things in the show as metaphor. Has this show just driven off a cliff?

Jack is a little peeved at Henderson. Audrey says "Kill him, Jack!" But, Jack merely clobbers Henderson and renders him out cold. And all this before the first commercial break.

Going into it, the clocks are at :13 to :13. Coming back, the clocks are at :18 to :17. Suddenly, a nude body builder drops out of the sky and starts looking up all the Sarah Connors in the LA phone book.

At this point, Logan calls someone named Graham. Just who in the snot is this guy? Logan tells Graham to cancel the action against Henderson. Ah, so Henderson was right to suspect Logan of treachery. Way to go, Buckaroo.

Graham is not happy to hear about the misadventures with the tape, Bauer, Henderson, and the whole kooky plot. Logan whines for the millionth time today "Don't take that tone with me." It's always about Logan, isn't it.

Graham says they have bigger problems, namely Mrs. Logan. Logan says he's taken steps to deal with Agent Pierce (huh??) and that he can handle Martha. Graham says ominously "You must silence her." Yeah, good luck silencing Martha.

Now, Martha is looking around for Pierce, and she's talking to some other agent. The agent says Pierce was transferred. Martha correctly wonders out loud "At 1 am?" The agent can't really check on things now because there is a glitch in the scheduling software.

Huh? For real? The bad guys have arranged every detail down to horsing up the Secret Service scheduling software? How can bad guys this prepared have screwed up so badly today? And was Pierce really transferred? To where, a radar station in Alaska, and they'll mail him his clothes?

Another agent comes by and escorts Martha to an office, and promptly locks her in. Martha hurriedly tries two phones in the officer, but they are apparently dead. (Again, good preparation, bad guys!) But, doesn't Martha have two cell phones at this point? Hers and Pierce's? Can't she try them?

Jack calls Chloe. Apparently Henderson must have handed off the tape to someone after he left the airport. (Should I even bother asking how Henderson arranged that so quickly? Whoever he gave this to must have been hanging around outside the airport already.)

And in seconds, with the help of Technomagic, Chloe immediately finds satellite evidence that Henderson did meet someone, and this someone went back to the Van Nuys airport and is boarding a plane there. This show isn't even trying to be plausible anymore.

Chloe's scheduling software is apparently working, and she divines that Curtis is out with a tac team, about 25 miles away. Huh? Last time we heard from Curtis, he was supposed to bring Bierko to CTU Medical. All this time we could only assume he was standing vigil with Bierko, gently stroking his hand, mopping his brow, whispering encouragement.

Jack and Chloe wonder what flight this is, as commercial flights are grounded. So, um, why are Henderson's two helicopters so free to fly around, including near the presidential retreat? Do the helos have those yellow Unrestricted Access stickers in the dash?

Jack wants Curtis to bring Audrey and Henderson to CTU. He says "They'll be able to get Audrey the medical attention she needs." Since this is the first time Jack has mentioned to anyone that Audrey needs medical attention, I'm not sure why Chloe and Bill don't ask what's wrong with her.

Jack needs to leave Audrey and chase after the tape. Audrey says "Make sure you get that recording." Jack says in his best High Noon voice, "I will."

Clocks are at :28 to :26.

Back at CTU, Miles says Bierko has regained consciousness. Finally. What a wimp. Tony got blowed up and had surgery, and he was up and around quickly. Henderson was tortured and pumped full of toxic chemicals, and he was up and around quickly. Jack got blowed up in the same explosion and was able to carry Bierko out. So why can't girly man Bierko handle a little explosion in a gas distribution plant?

Valerie has apparently returned to CTU after tailing Audrey. She calls up Karen and says Chloe is gone, and surveillance tapes show Shari let her go. Shari is now in custody.

Miles will go look at binaries. Hmm, alt.girlypics.binaries?

Karen interrogates Shari. She asks why Shari let Chloe go. Shari says "She intimidated me." She starts to babble about a psych eval, and then spills the beans about what Chloe said about Logan. She says "And people think I'm crazy!" Yes, this is the kind of stable individual CTU allows to work in its most sensitive locations. Good vetting process, CTU. Karen gets a suspicious look.

Back at the presidential retreat, Martha is wigging out inside the locked room. Logan comes in, and they have a little chat about what is going on. Logan is doing that annoying head leany thing again. Logan says about David Palmer "I never authorized his death." He admits he knew about it. At this point, Martha utterly comes unglued. My wife chuckled at this scene.

Martha says "What you've done makes me sick!" She can't forgive this. She says "I hate you." Hmm, I'm guessing she is no longer eager to have Logan come to bed. She does say she'll remain quiet, for the good of the country. I think what would be good for the country is if she buried her high heels in Logan's cranium.

Clocks are at :40 to :37.

Graham is having a meeting with Ron and two others. They are discussing loose ends. Since we have no idea who these people are, the scene loses a little bit of the impact. Graham says they started this thing 18 months ago, which in the show's time frame is the end of last season, when Logan first became President.

Logan talks to Graham again. Logan whines "It's about time I heard some words of appreciation." As I said, it's always about Logan.

Back at the barn, Henderson comes around, and immediately tries to rattle Audrey by bringing up Heller, saying she's a bad naughty daughter for not trying to save him. He could still be alive in that lake. But nope, Audrey doesn't make a call that would give away their location. Because these well-prepared bad guys could somehow monitor it.

Audrey says "Not. Another. Word."

Chloe looks into her palantir again and sees a helo heading for Audrey's location. Apparently they managed to find her after all. How? We have no idea. I'm guessing the writers don't either. I think they just writes pages of the script, put them on a Lazy Susan, spin it around and pull the pages off at random and assemble them.

Jack calls Audrey and tells her to go. Curtis will track down Henderson. The krazy kaptions have Audrey saying "He's responsible for the death of my father's death." That statement is pretty much in keeping with the logic of this episode.

Audrey finally leaves, after resisting the urge to put a bullet in Henderson's head. But, it's not the most efficient escape ever. She runs into a locked door. The baddies release Henderson, and he orders them to kill Audrey.

Audrey hides behind some hay bales, determined to make a last stand, when Curtis emerges from the shadows. Where did he come from? And how did he get in, if the doors Audrey was trying were locked? And when did he get there? If before the helo, why didn't he come straight in? If after, how did the baddies not see him?

Curtis says "Stay behind me", but the krazy kaptions have him saying "Stay down."

There is a brief gunfight as the occupants of the helicopter are gunned down. Another agent brings Henderson to Curtis.

Back in the Chloe/Jack thread, it's been determined the plane at Van Nuys airport is a diplomatic flight. Jack is outside the fence watching. There is a bunch of security. This crack security apparently did not hear the gun fight, or the exploding fuel tank, on the other side of the airport a short time ago.

Chloe said it will be hard to get past the State Department's firewall to find more information. What? Chloe hacked into the NSA in seconds. Is she saying a bunch of diploweenies have better computer security than the most secretive intelligence agency in the government?

Jack hitches a ride on a fuel truck going by, to get close to the plane.

Clocks are at :53 to :50.

Security is checking over the truck, doing the mirror underneath thing. They clear it to pass, but isn't letting a truck filled with jet fuel, explosive and highly flammable jet fuel, a security risk in itself? What were they looking for with the little mirrors that would be more dangerous than a big fuel truck bomb?

Miles has detected Chloe's presence in the network. He says he machine-coded a matrix and yadda yadda. Yeah, right. Machine-coded something. I've written assembly code before, and it's not something you just throw together in seconds.

He is able to figure out that Chloe is at Bill's house. He'll dispatch a tac team. Apparently one is in the neighborhood. Why? No idea.

Karen calls Mike, and asks about the evidence that Jack is involved in Palmer's death, the reason Logan gave for CTU to apprehend him. Mike says he hasn't seen it. Karen is surprised he's out of the loop. Mike says there is no loop. He says "It's been a strange night."

Getting more and more suspicious, Karen calls up Bill and warns him to get Chloe out of there. (Apparently she doesn't care if Bill stays behind and gets arrested.)

Chloe refused to leave. She's still trying to break that infernal State Dept security.

Jack is near the plane. Workers finish loading luggage into the plane. Jack puts up his hood, grabs a couple of suitcases off a cart and heads for the plane.

I swear, that jacket was made by elves. First the hood protects him from deadly nerve gas, and now it fools people into thinking he's a baggage handler. (And not sure why the cart was pulling away from the plane with luggage. Did they unload luggage?)

Jack gets up into the belly of the plane, and the episode ends.

Apparently next week Jack hi-Jacks a plane? Goodness.

And now, once again, here is guest critic Paul Foth. He's almost crawl-on-the-floor to the toilet sick, but like Tony and Henderson, he shook it off and got this review done.

***
Okay, so you've got me one more time. I ended up getting sick, so rather than being out of the house, I was plunked down in front of the TV, staring at Jack & Co. for another week. So help me, when you're looking out from under a haze of fever and coughing, it all begins to make sense.

No, not really. But I had you going there for a second, didn't I?

My favorite line of the night was when Martha told Charles, "This whole day has been one big lie!" I love it when a character says something that fits within the story and also comments on the story. It's as if for a brief moment, Martha had been yanked out of the 24-verse and given a viewer's-eye perspective on it. Her only recourse was to tell Chuckie how insane it all is. But, like the square in Edwin Abbott's Flatland, who was pulled out of his flat, two-dimensional world and given a glimpse of a universe in all its volumetric glory, only to be labeled an insane freak upon returning home and trying to explain what he'd seen, Martha's metaphysical comment will only ever be interpreted as more lunatic raving.

Speaking of Chuckles, there was a moment during his confrontation with Martha when the combination of camera placement, lighting, and the way he held his head reminded me very much of Colonel Kurtz in Apocalypse Now. I was half expecting Logan to start daubing his head with a washcloth and talking about gardenias. This is the end. Beautiful friend, the end.

But not quite the end. It seems the leader of the free world ain't so free himself, that he's dancing to the tune of yet another cabal we've never seen before. It's rather late in the game to be bringing in a brand new set of players, which leads me to suspect this season may end in a cliffhanger of some kind--not that next season would pick up right where this one leaves off (unless the show changes its name to 48 and has characters starting to hallucinate because they've been awake for so long), but rather the immediate crisis would be resolved only to hint at a new one that will require months of boring investigation and infiltration that culminate in another sleepless day.

So who are these bozos with the clip-on phones? Poor planners, for one thing. Their leader made the comment that he, "never made a deal that didn't look like it was going to fall apart in the eleventh hour." Really? Is this the mark of success, that until it actually happens it looks like failure? That would make for a rather jittery life, I think. No wonder these guys are evil. I mean, PATRIOTS. I mean, evil patriots.

One interesting bit was that they apparently started this thing rolling eighteen months ago, which is when the events of last season took place. Is the implication that these yahoos were Marwan's bosses and that they're the ones ultimately responsible for President Keelover's demise? If so, did the writers have this in mind last season? It's okay: I'll give you a moment to regain your composure before continuing.

Ready? Okay. Read on.

Was SecDef Heller's departure a surprise? Not really. Did you see William Devane's name under the "Special Guest Star" credit at the beginning of the episode? It was a lead pipe cinch he was going to die. The only question was over the circumstances. (And if he couldn't see a helicopter tracking him from only a couple thousand feet away, in full view of his driver's-side window, until Jack told him to look for it, then it may be a good thing the country has to find a new SecDef.)

Then again, maybe he didn't die. We never saw the body. It's at least conceivable that Heller had been a Navy SEAL and is even now swimming to safety. Henderson's manipulation of Audrey in that regard was brutal, perhaps more so because he may very well have been telling the truth.

Which brings up the point that this episode featured some really fine performances. Greg Itzin and Jean Smart were their normal excellent selves and really made some sparks fly during Charles and Martha's confrontation (although if Charles thinks Martha is really going to keep quiet, I think he's got another think coming), and Kim Raver did an awesome job portraying someone who was barely holding it together.

Which brings up the point, yet again, that this could be such an AWESOME show if the writing talent matched the acting talent. Instead, we get some great character moments stitched together with continuity breaks, handwaving, technobabble, and nonsense. It's like driving a car that runs beautifully for three miles and then blows a gasket--again and again and again.

Witness Curtis and his magically appearing tac team. Just what were they doing before they stormed anonymous structure #238 and rescued Audrey? Driving around casting chiseled silhouettes in the moonlight?

Witness Jack and that sweatshirt hood. First it protects him from Ultra Deathkill Sentox Six VX-1 7/a.b Mark III nerve gas, and now it disguises him as a baggage handler! That is one brilliant piece of antiterrorist paraphernalia. In the future, we'll probably see it stop bullets, cure cancer, and fold out into an Astin Martin.

Witness Miles finding Chloe. He did this how? Our first clue was him muttering to himself, "I can track the binary." Umm. The binary WHAT? Binary is an adjective. Our second clue was something about a matrix. He must've swallowed the blue pill. Now we have to start calling him Neo.

Witness Bilbo's house, where Chloe is able to find Henderson using a cobbled-together network while hacking into ultra-secure government surveillance computers, when she couldn't find him hours earlier with CTU's uber-servers and permission to look at the data.

Any Lewis Black fans out there? Have you ever seen him when he can't find the words to express just how stupid whatever he's ranting about is? He shakes his head back and forth, loosens his jaw, and lets incoherent noises escape for a second or two. (Go over to his website; I'm sure there's a recording or two of what I'm talking about there.) I think it'd be great if 24 used this technique instead of trying to come up with plausible-sounding techno-bleats. So instead of Miles saying, "I can track the binary," we'd get, "I can track the 'blubblbubbubllblbblbee'," complete with him shaking his head back back and forth and perhaps flinging saliva all over CTU HQ. Then again, CTU would get mighty wet mighty quickly if they make this switch, and not a small number of personnel would probably get whiplash.

Okay, so what do we have to look forward to? Bierko has apparently regained consciousness, and will soon be joined at Gestapo Headquarters by Henderson. If Henderson can waltz out of there by himself after being shot full of battery acid, he and Bierko together should be able to kill everyone left and order out for pizza without breaking a sweat. Audrey's on her way to CTU Medical, so she's a goner. And high in the air, Jack becomes a hijacker.

I leave you with a question, one I'm sure you'll be able to answer: This show often reminds me of which line from This is Spinal Tap?
***

Me again. My guesses are:

"This show goes to eleven."

"CTUids. No one knows who they were, or what they were doing."

"Bierko choked on someone else's vomit."

Number of times Jack says "Now!": 21
Number of times Jack says "No!": 8
Number of times a "protocol" is mentioned: 38
Number of times someone says a variation of "Go!": 29
Number of moles: 4
Approximate Body Count: 94 (plus three rats, plus one human nerve gas guinea pig, plus 11 in the mall food court (and no, not from food poisoning), plus one security camera, plus 56 in CTU)

<-12:00 AM - 1:00 AM 2:00 AM - 3:00 AM ->

Why Pakistan wants to hold on to Balochistan

An interesting post at the website of the Government of Balochistan in Exile details the potential riches in Balochistan. I can't independently vouch for the numbers, but the province does hold great promise in terms of natural resources.

This is one of the chief reasons behind the insurgency there. The Balochs feel the Pakistani government takes the greater portion of revenues generated by these resources, and does not give a fair share to the Balochs. Poverty and lack of education are problems in this province, and these resources could certainly be used to improve conditions for the people who live atop these resources.

Understandable, then, that Pakistan will not be quick to let go of this province. Here is a summary of the post.

POPULATION

There are approximately 15 million Baloch in the world. About 2.06 million live in Iran, 8.3 million live in Pakistan (3.25 are currently living in Pakistan’s Balochistan province), and 930,000 live in Afghanistan. The remaining Baloch population is scattered all over. [Baloch comprise 3% of Afghanistan’s population, 3% of Iran’s population, and 5% of Pakistan’s population]

OIL AND GAS [Revenue: $42 billion per year]

Oil and Gas, both offshore and onshore, can generate a major portion of the total annual revenue for Balochistan. According to the Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP), it was estimated during their offshore exploration that there are reserves of 19 trillion cubic feet of gas and 6 trillion barrels of oil in Balochistan.

MINERAL [Revenue: $1.5 billion per year]

The territory is based on the geological belt with known world-class mineral deposits that could generate several billion dollars in revenues annually. More than 50 metallic and non-metallic minerals have been discovered in Balochistan. Metallic ores are chromites, copper, gold, silver, iron ore, lead and zinc, while the non-metallic include barite, marble, granite, gypsum, limestone, coal, dolomite, calcite, silica sand, and various building/engineering stones.

The Rekodiq project is estimated to produce 200,000 tons of copper and 400,000 ounces of gold per year. Saindek mines produce 15,800 tons of copper, 53,000 ounces of gold and 106,000 ounces of silver per year.

AGRICULTURE [Revenue: $250 million per year]

Balochistan possesses enormous economic potential in farming, livestock, and fisheries. These resources provide the base for setting up a large number of agro-based industries.

GWADAR PORT [Revenue: $10 billion per year]

Located outside the Straight of Hormuz, Gwadar Port will offer direct road access to Afghanistan, Central Asian States, and China.

GAS AND OIL PIPELINE [Revenue: $2 billion per year]

There are three major pipeline projects on the books. The merging point of all these three pipelines will create opportunities for Baloch industrialists to develop value added downstream industries, such as oil refinery, fertilizer plants, pharmaceutical, petrochemical, etc.

US AIR BASES [Revenue: $600 million per year]

Currently, Dalbandin and Pasni air bases are leased to the US government.

TOURISM [Revenue: $150 million per year]

By having a democratic, liberal and secular government in place, Balochistan has the potential to attract global tourism to its coastal region. In 2005, over 2 million tourists traveled to Iran and Pakistan. It is safe to assume that Balochistan can attract over 200,000 tourists per year.

Giant Gazprom

The New York Times has an informative article on Gazprom, the giant Russian gas company.

You may be surprised at just how large Gazprom is.

But even as Gazprom closes in on BP, now the world's second-largest energy company after Exxon Mobil, critics say it is hardly a model for Russia's future. "This is not why we had reforms in the 1990s," said Yevgeny G. Yasin, a former minister of economy. "This is a little like the Soviet Union."

He added, "This is a questionable solution because the government will dictate political and not economic decisions."

Gazprom emerged in the early 1990's from the former Soviet Ministry of the Gas Industry — privatized in part, but still under state control — and inherited more than the ministry's core operations. It also inherited its piece of the Soviet Union's paternalistic economy, in towns and settlements stretching from the Arctic gas fields to those along the maze of pipelines leading south.

Gazprom employs 330,000 people at major divisions for exploration, pipelines and export sales, as well as a division for its newly acquired oil company, Sibneft, a banking arm, a media company and hundreds of subsidiaries. It generated profits of $4.6 billion on revenue of $28 billion in 2004, the last year for which audited results are available.

It's reach extends beyond just the energy market.

Gazprom built homes, roads and sports centers. It even guaranteed that groceries would be available in the stores by forming its own agricultural holdings. As once-proud Soviet collective farms failed and foreign imports overwhelmed Russia's domestic production, Gazprom stepped in with financing and became the biggest single owner of agricultural land in Russia.

The company's footprint has grown even beyond farms to include a manufacturer of mining equipment, banks, a porcelain factory and, as of mid-April, a new radio station called Relax FM, playing easy-listening pop and rock from the West.

While executives say they intend to shed the company of noncore assets and other Soviet-era burdens, Gazprom continues to make investments that seem to have a political motive more than a corporate one.

Last year, for example, it expanded its media holdings with the acquisition of Izvestia, one of the most influential national newspapers. It also bought a soccer team, Zenit, in St. Petersburg and announced recently that it would move the headquarters of Sibneft, the oil company once slated to merge with Yukos but now absorbed into Gazprom, to St. Petersburg, the former capital. The latter move fit into a stated policy to step up investment in St. Petersburg, where Mr. Putin and many of his closest aides once lived and worked.

[Its media arm is now in talks to buy one of the largest-circulation newspapers, Komsomolskaya Pravda, and an associated publishing house for as much as $300 million, Vedomosti, a Russian business daily, reported April 20.]

Gazprom has become an instrument of Russian foreign policy, and their leadership reflects it.

I've remarked before how the chief executive, Alexsei Millier, is one of Putin's circle going back to their St. Petersburg days.

The chairman of Gazprom's board, Dmitri A. Medvedev is the former Kremlin chief of staff and the current first deputy prime minister. He is one of the possibilities to replace Putin. (And there has been speculation Putin might become the head of Gazprom when he leaves office, though so far Putin has been coy on that front.)

This giant company has levers big enough to move nations. When discussing Russia's future, and its relations with other states, any mention of Gazprom won't be far behind.

Significant developments in Nepal

After days of protests in Nepal, some news of potentially significant change in Nepal.

An ashen King Gyanendra went on television late this evening to concede to the demands of the angry pro-democracy demonstrations roiling his country and turn over the government to the elected parliament that was dissolved four years ago.

His offer came on the eve of what were billed to be the largest demonstrations to date calling for the restoration of democracy. The political parties who launched the pro-democracy protests 19 days ago had been preparing to encircle the city center Tuesday. Instead, celebrations broke out late tonight on the streets of Katmandu.
....
He did not, however, explicitly address the demand for a referendum to redraw the Nepali constitution and let the Nepali people decide on the future of the monarchy once and for all. The vote on the constitution is the principal demand of the Maoist rebels who have fought a brusing 10-year-long insurgency and have lately linked arms with Nepal's political leaders to defeat the monarchy.

While a return to democracy in Nepal would be welcome, it would not resolve the problem of the bloody Maoist insurgency. Their goal is to install a Maoist government.

Dozens have been killed in recent weeks and months as the Maoists fought against the monarchy. It's hard to believe the Maoists would put aside their violent ways in their continued quest to form the government in their image.

Monday Winds of War Briefing

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Monday's Winds of War briefings are given by Peace Like a River and Security Watchtower.

Top Topics

* The CIA fired a top intelligence analyst who admitted leaking classified information that led to a Pulitzer Prize-winning story about a network of secret CIA prisons, government officials say. The officer was a senior analyst nearing retirement, Mary McCarthy, The Associated Press learned. Reached Friday evening at home, her husband would not confirm her firing. Strata-Sphere has a good roundup of developments.

* An Arab Al-Qaeda terrorist was killed in a gunbattle with Pakistani soldiers in a restive tribal area bordering Afghanistan, a minister confirmed. "It is a big achievement because he was an explosive expert of Al-Qaeda," Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao told AFP. A security official earlier said the man, known as Abu Marwan al-Suri, was a possible Saudi national. Sherpao said he was killed on Thursday in Bajaur. Intelligence officials say the man was closely linked to Ayman al Zawahri.

* Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas blocked Hamas' plan to create their own security force le