Iran and the SCO

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is meeting in Moscow today. (See my post here for some background on the SCO.)

Currently the SCO includes Russia, China, and the Central Asian states of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

One important matter the SCO is considering is whether to admit Iran as a full member. Iran currently has observer status, along with Mongolia, India and Pakistan.

The SCO should take up the matter at their summit in Shanghai in June. Iranian President Ahmadinejad hopes to attend.

In an opinion piece at RIA Novosti, Dmitry Kosyrev outlines why Iranian membership is a thorny issue for the SCO.

At that time, political scientists that were not well informed on the true workings of the organization jubilated at its success: after all, everyone with serious interests in Central Asia was shifting towards the SCO. Sum up the population of these countries, and you will get an incredible publicity effect.

What has happened? For obvious reasons, everyone was interested whether Iran would be accepted as a member this summer. The answer in Shanghai was a clear no. Neither Iran with its complicated relations with the U.S. and the IAEA, nor European Belarus, nor Pakistan with its attempts to find new friends in the wake of the ongoing Indian-American rapprochement, none of them will join the SCO now.

The reason is not so much the lack of understanding - and documents - of what new members will bring the SCO. Is it necessary to review, for instance, their agreements and treaties with other nations?

The problem is that there is too much politics and too many words and general declarations around the SCO. New members mean new declarations. According to available information, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who will attend the forthcoming summit in Shanghai, was asked to speak not so much of America and Israel as of Iran's role as the region's economic partner.

Economy is the key, the essence of existence. In short, the SCO envisages security guarantees plus economic and social development of Central Asia. That's all.

Given the serious matters confronting the UN over Iran's nuclear program, giving Iran full membership in the SCO would be seen as a move against the US, since the SCO is becoming a vehicle to squeeze the US out of Central Asia.

And since the June summit is ahead of the July meeting of the G-8 in St. Petersburg, Russia may be wary of creating a hot button issue for itself that could cause tensions in what will already be a closely watched G-8 meeting.

Oil politics play a large role in the SCO, and Iran wants to be involved. The SCO can signal how willing it is to oppose the West by whether or not it gives Iran full membership this summer.