Nigeria, Iran and China
David McCormack has a terrific analysis on Nigeria over at the Warfooting blog. He brings up something I've mentioned here, namely the Islamic elements that exist in Nigeria.
I've also mentioned in passing that China is certainly interested in Nigeria, too, given Nigeria's oil industry. But McCormack adds some interesting details.
In a comment to his post, I asked him if he had any information on Iranian involvement in Nigeria, as I talked about in this post.
He replied by email and added some additional interesting details. Here's his reply:
It was hoped by many that President Bush's meeting today with Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo augurs a stronger relationship between the United States and Africa's most populous country. The reality, however, is that a situation exists in Nigeria in which threats to U.S. interests are creating tremendous impediments to a viable partnership. If the U.S. does not act quickly, these challenges will become insurmountable.
Most significantly, Nigeria -- home to 60 million Muslims, roughly half the country's population -- has become the central battleground of Islamofascism's war on Africa. Over the course of the last 30 years, foreign sponsors -- namely Saudi Arabia, but including Iran and Libya -- backed by treasuries overflowing with petrodollars have systematically exported extremist interpretations of Islam to the African subcontinent, significantly corroding the region's temperate and progressive Islamic traditions.
Nowhere has the impact of this campaign been felt more greatly than in Nigeria. In the shake-up that followed liberation from military rule in 1999, twelve predominantly Muslim states in northern Nigeria took advantage of the central government's weakened position and adopted legal codes based on full Shari'a. Characteristics of these Shari'a states include the severe marginalization of women and the institutionalization of punishments such as flogging and death by stoning. The new laws, moreover, are often applied regardless of a citizen's faith and enforced by vigilante organizations modeled on those of Saudi Arabia and Iran.
I've also mentioned in passing that China is certainly interested in Nigeria, too, given Nigeria's oil industry. But McCormack adds some interesting details.
Absent communal friction, Nigeria's energy sector would still prove highly problematic for American interests. Communist China's global drive to dominate strategic energy resources has naturally attracted it to sub-Saharan Africa, from which it currently imports nearly 30 percent of its oil and natural gas. The PRC's presence, unfortunately, has greatly abetted the scourge of Africa -- corruption. As Mustafa Bello, head of the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission, recently admitted, "The U.S. will talk to you about governance, about efficiency, about security, about the environment....The Chinese just ask, 'How do we procure this license?'"
Not surprisingly, then, Nigeria has been increasingly receptive to PRC energy forays. For instance, in its first major investment since its failed bid to take over Unocal last year, the Chinese state-controlled oil company CNOOC announced last month it will pay $2.3 billion for a 45 percent stake in a Nigerian oil field. As Iheanyi Ohiaeri, head of business development for Nigeria's National Petroleum Corporation, explains, "We haven't been totally invaded by China yet, but it will come."
In a comment to his post, I asked him if he had any information on Iranian involvement in Nigeria, as I talked about in this post.
He replied by email and added some additional interesting details. Here's his reply:
I'm afraid I just don't know enough to definitively say whether or not Iran is involved in the Niger Delta. They have, however, been involved in the advance of Islamism in the northern region - for example, they sponsor an Islamist publication called Sakon Islam, and the leader of the Nigerian Ikhwan was trained in and is suspected to have received money from Iran.
I've spent a great deal of time chronicling Saudi activity in Africa in general and in Nigeria more specifically (http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/Af_Vortex.pdf).
If the opportunity ever arises, I'd love to do the same with Iran. A casual glance seems to suggest they're a lot more involved in eastern and southern Africa, but I'm sure some research would turn up a lot more in western Africa as well.






5 Comments:
At Sun Apr 02, 04:21:00 PM, The Chukmeister said…
Wow! I was not aware of the Iranian involvement with Nigeria. I am well aware of the crisis being a citizen myself. Thank you for the information.
At Mon Apr 03, 03:18:00 AM, NYkrinDC said…
Sorry to double post, but I just realized that the other post was older, hence I felt the need to repost my response here to address the Iran-Nigeria connection.
But is financing and expertise coming from outside Nigeria? And if so, could Iran be involved? If so, why?
This is unlikely, not impossible, but unlikely. Most of the militant groups in the Niger Delta and elsewhere in the region owe their existence to graft, politics and the grievances of the local population. First, many government and military officials in the Delta benefit from stealing Nigerian crude and selling it in the black market, or importing it into Nigeria at a higher profit. They benefit from the instability in the region, and provide armaments to these groups in an effort to fuel it. Many have stepped up their calls for the Delta's control of a larger chunk of the revenue that comes from the oil, not to help the people but to steal more for themselves, and are using the violence to pressure Obasanjo to leave them alone (particularly his anti-graft campaign). Additionally, with Obasanjo possibly wanting to stay a third term, these people are panicking because the way they saw it, they only had to put up with him for one more year, and then go back to business as usual, but if he stays, they can expect that his anti-graft crusade will continue. Whether his staying is a good idea or not, that is a different matter. In many ways, the current violence is a reflection on how politics are run in Nigeria. It is commonly known for example that mujahid dokubo asari was , before he became a militia leader, in the employ of the current party in power. It is common practice for these parties to provide youth gangs that support them with weapons to ensure that they can "get out the vote". As such, we can expect that in this coming election, and given the high quality of the armaments carried by Youth groups and militias, will also cause the parties vying for power to provide their thugs more powerful weapons. Additionally, going back to graft, the US has refused to provide weapons to the security forces, because it has found evidence that these have made their way to the militias thanks to corrupt military officials, and is one of the main worries the US has with regards tot he weapons that Nigeria is currently receiving from China.
Now, with regard to the local grievances, these youth groups exists thanks to the high unemployment rate in the Delta. Many not having any other sort of employment have hired themselves out to various militias at one time or another, whether to protect ethnic enclaves, oil installations (which benefit local ethnic groups) or political parties. Additionally, there has been mounting evidence that many of the leaders of these groups are also former government security forces.
You are correct in guessing that MEND sprung up to fast to have been a spontaneous uprising, but this reflects a common Nigerian story, mainly that it was probably organized by local political parties, corrupt officials or other internal actors who benefit from the instability.
A larger worry, with regard to Nigeria (though not much so given its complexity) is the fact that Osama bin Laden targeted it as one of the five muslim regimes ripe for revolution, and as such has also been elevated by the US to a country with high impact on its neighborhood deserving of focused american attention.
That said, most of the problems afflicting Nigeria are local in nature, stemming from the lack of the Federal government from being able to provide for its population, be an objective arbiter in disputes among its people, environmental degradation (in the Niger Delta), poverty, desertification in the Sahel region which has pushes nomadic (mostly muslim) southwards in search of better pastures, bringing them into conflict with southern farmers (mostly christian) making for a conflict over land resources (couched in religious overtones).
At Mon Apr 03, 09:41:00 AM, Jeff said…
Thanks for the cogent reply. Indeed, my supposition is not so much that Iran may be driving events in the region. I wonder more if Iran might be taking advantage of the situation to try and influence things there. I do think Iran would like Nigeria as an ally in using oil as a weapon against the West, and as such it would be easier if Nigeria had an Islamic government. (I think for the same reason Iran is building a relationship with Venezuela.)
I think the furor over the Danish cartoons was another case where Iran didn't cause the initial events, but took advantage of circumstances to allow the Danish and Norwegian embassies to be attacked to send a warning to Europe.
But I do think you are correct in saying local forces are the most important factors in Nigeria.
At Mon Apr 03, 01:58:00 PM, NYkrinDC said…
Agreed. Given high oil prices and the fact that supply cannot keep up with demand, any instability is good for the hardliners in Iran. That said, I very much doubt that Iran would like to have an Islamist state in Nigeria. Most Nigerians with the exception of a small group financed by Iran (called Shiites because of it, although I think their belief's are actually sunni or some other sect) are Sunni muslims. If Jihadist, or Islamists came to power, the only way that would benefit Iran is in the attendant instability that is likely to create, since the country is 40% christian it is likely that these (mostly Ijaw, other minorities, some Yoruba) would rise against the imposition of Sharia throughout the country. This would interrupt oil supplies dramatically, causing a rise in oil prices. However, being Islamist is not enough for Iran to want you as an ally, particularly if influenced by Wahhabi teachings which see the Shiite state as worse than the Great Satan himself. After all, Iran benefitted as much from our takedown of the Taliban, as we did.
I think you are on to something regarding Venezuela, Iran and others who seem to be banding together (particularly against us) but that is more a function of a response to the current world order where the US is the leviathan. Naturally, powers that have no stake in the system, will seek to balance or change that system to ensure that they also have a voice in it, or in any new system that develops; in short, power politics.
At Tue Apr 04, 08:43:00 AM, Jeff said…
Not too long ago Venezuela was making noises about cutting back on oil production, but they backed away from that. Also, Chavez has been talking about selling the Citgo plants owned by PDVSA that can handle Venezuela's heavy crude, so that Venezuela wouldn't be so tied to the US.
If things get worse with Iran, one wonders what Venezuela might do.
Post a Comment
<< Home