The challenges of a nuclear Iran

This morning the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations held a hearing entitled A Nuclear Iran: Challenges and Responses.

The hearing got underway about 10 minutes late. Chairman Lugar explained that the committee was just coming from a closed briefing with Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte.

The committee first heard from Sen. Rick Santorum. He spoke briefly about Iran and a bill he introduced. The bill, S. 333, is called the Iran Freedom and Support Act, and was introduced a year ago. It was referred to this Senate Foreign Relations Committee and is still in the committee. (Sen. Santorum also spoke on the Senate floor this morning about Iran.)

The witnesses the committee heard from are:

- Ronald F. Lehman, II
Director
Center for Global Security Research
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

- Dr. Patrick Clawson
Deputy Director for Research
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

- Dr. Ray Takeyh
Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies
Council on Foreign Relations

I'll briefly summarize a few of the points they made. Copies of their written statements should be available later at the hearing page linked to above.

Lehman:

* The UN Security Council should make clear that further proliferation is a danger

* Iran does have a nuclear weapons program underway

* We should not forget about Iran's efforts to build reprocessing capability

* We should recognize that sanctions could fail

* People have not yet internalized how serious a nuclear-armed Iran would be

Clawson:

* Given the problem surrounding WMDs in Iraq, we face an uphill battle convincing the public of the dangers Iran poses

* Iranian President Ahmadinejad made his remarks last fall about wiping Israel off the map at a conference entitled A World Without Zionism and America

* Ahmadinejad essentially says if Islam is to rule the world, Iran should pave the way

* We should pay attention to what Iranian leaders say they are doing. They are open about their nuclear program, though they deny it is for weapons

* He spoke to Pakistanis who likened the possibility of Pakistani warheads on Iranian missiles as to American warheads on German missiles in the 1980s

* There are things we can do outside the UN Security Council, such as sell anti-missile technology to Arab and Gulf States, and take steps in conjunction with other nations to keep the Straits of Hormuz open

Takeyh:

* He proposes postponing a UN Security Council discussion of Iran till September, and in the interim hold talks involving the US, the EU3, Iran, Russia and China. (I think this would only buy more time for Iran.)

* Military action will not slow down Iran's nuclear program. It is too dispersed, hardened and urbanized

* The US agreement with India on India's nuclear program tells Iran that the US is not so much concerned with profilferation, but with Iran itself