Peace Like A River


It was a wide river, mistakable for a lake or even an ocean unless you'd been wading and knew its current. Somehow I'd crossed it... Now I saw the stream regrouped below, flowing on through what might've been vineyards, pastures, orhards... It flowed between and alongside the rivers of people; from here it was no more than a silver wire winding toward the city. - Leif Enger, Peace Like A River

Monday, November 14, 2005

Monday Winds of War Briefing

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Monday's Winds of War briefings are given by Security Watchtower and Peace Like a River.

Top Topics

* Jordanian authorities continue investigations in the aftermath of the Amman bombings. King Abdullah believes the targets of the attacks were Jordanians, not westerners. The fourth bomber, an Iraqi female, was captured and confessed on television to being part of the attack. Not suprisingly, some Jordanians are blaming Israel for the bombings, a view shared by Iran as well. There also remains concern that al Qaeda may have infiltrated Jordanian security forces.

* Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is convinced that Iran can prevail over the United States for the future of the Middle East, which includes the "liberation" of Palestine.

* Riots in France continued through the weekend (France on Fire), with 315 cars being torched and 161 people detained on Saturday night, the seventeenth night of violence. Meanwhile, France and the rest of Western Europe is full of kindling for riots. Gateway Pundits also has a good recap of nights 17 & 18.

Other topics today include: Iranian threat not sinking in; Saudi Arabia's fight against terror; advances in Iranian nuke program; Harkat's ties to al Qaeda; Russia considering security wall; bombing in Chechnya; Arrests in India; attacks in Afghanistan; Firefight with Abu Sayyaf; JI bombmaker planned more attacks; Queen of England named enemy of Islam; jihadists urge riots on; Somalian pirates; and much more.

Iran & the Middle East

* In the wake of Ahmadinejad's call for Israel to be wiped off the face of the earth, Iran's defiance over uranium enrichment, their increasing missile capabilities, continued harboring of al Qaeda leadership, paramilitary training, crushing of dissent and a host of other warning signs, the threat is not sinking in among western policy makers or the mass media.

* Israeli security forces killed Shoja'a Balawi, a leader of al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigades in Jenin, after a shootout in the West Bank town late Saturday.

* Testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Daniel Glaser said that Saudi Arabia has made progress in fighting terrorism and regulation of religious charities has shown improvement, but not enough is being done to regulate Saudi charities outside of the country. Since May 2003, 41 of the top 42 wanted terrorists have been killed or captured (Chart).

* A Kuwaiti defense lawyer is asking the court for leniency for six suspects arrested in January, on the grounds that they were not going to attack targets in Kuwait, but instead were headed to Iraq to wage jihad.

* Back in July, U.S. and European authorities discovered evidence that Iran's nuclear program had "made significant advancement toward weaponization", and have since been sharing the information with selected nations and the IAEA.

* Syria has rejected the idea of Syrian officials leaving the country to be interviewed in connection with the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiki Hariri. The defiance comes as Secretary Rice continues to pressure Damascus to cooperate.

* In the midst of a Middle East trip, Secretary Rice is also expected to suggest reforms in Saudi Arabia, nearly a week after a State Department report cited the Kingdom for denying religious freedoms.

America Domestic Security & the America's

* Police and army operations ended Friday at the Jamaat-al-Muslimeen Mucurapo compound in Trinidad 37 hours after the armed forces occupied the compound to conduct an arms raid. The man in charge of the operation, ACP Crime Gilbert Reyes, confirmed that the operation had ended but said that other initiatives were continuing.

* Jamaat-al-Muslimeen leader Yasin Abu Bakr and two young men were all denied bail by a magistrate Friday on charges of possession of a large quantity of ammunition, a hand grenade and a rifle. On Thursday Bakr appeared in court on four charges of incitement and sedition relating to a sermon he gave at Eid-ul-Fitr celebrations at the Jamaat-al-Muslimeen compound.

* A letter from the Algerian government points, for the first time, to the evidence that Canada may be relying upon to support its contention that Mohamed Harkat made al-Qaeda contacts in Afghanistan in the early 1990s. Mr. Harkat, an Algerian refugee and former Ottawa pizza delivery man, stands accused by the Canadian government of being an al-Qaeda terrorist.

* Colombia's Constitutional Court has cleared the way for President Alvaro Uribe to stand for re-election in 2006. Correspondents say there are fears that left-wing guerrillas, who are desperate to avert another four years of Mr Uribe, will escalate a campaign of violence. Mr Uribe is one of Washington's strongest allies in South America.

* Actor Bruce Willis has offered $1 million to anyone who turns in al-Qaeda terror leaders. The patriotic "Die Hard" star will pay out for information on the whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden, Aymen Al-zawahiri or Abu Musab Al-zarqawi.

Russia & South/Central Asia

* In its North Caucasus Security Watch on Friday, RIA Novosti summarized the main security-related events in the North Caucasus. Included in the summary are items related to the Nalchik attacks and incidents in Chechnya.

* The latest issue of Chechnya Weekly, from The Jamestown Foundation, examines, among other items, the possibility that Moscow might wall off Chechnya, in a manner similar to Israel's West Bank security fence.

* Leaders of seven South Asian countries met in Dhaka, Bangladesh, over the weekend to ratify plans to reduce trade barriers starting from January and to promote economic development in the region which is home to half the world's poor. Saarc countries were strongly pitching for the Dhaka Summit to send out a clear message that there must be "zero tolerance" for terrorism in any form or manifestation. On Saturday, the countries agreed on a united effort to combat terrorism.

* A weapons cache and ammunition were found in Kabardino-Balkaria in the Urvan district. The cache included an anti-aircraft launcher and an improvised bomb.

* A blast in the Sunzhenski district of Chechnya, which borders with Ingushetia, destroyed an armored personnel vehicle, killing two police officers and injuring five, a local police official said Sunday. According to the police report, a roadside bomb went off near the temporary police headquarters.

* Officers of the Russian Federal Security Service Department for Chechnya have averted an act of terrorism which gunmen were preparing against top officials of the republic. As Itar-Tass learnt at the press service of the department, "on the eve, an operation to detain bandits involved in the preparation of this act of terrorism was conducted in the village of Katur-Yurt of the Achkhoi-Martan region of the republic."

* An armed clash took place near the village of Avtury in Chechnya, the Interfax news agency reported Saturday. One rebel has been killed. There have been no casualties among the federal forces. A participant of illegal armed groups, reportedly an Arab mercenary, was killed in the clash, Chechen Interior Minister Ruslan Alkhanov told Interfax on Saturday morning.

* The suspected key coordinator of last month’s serial bombings in New Delhi that killed 62 people has been arrested, police said on Sunday. The search is on for four accomplices identified as members of the hardline rebel group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which is among a dozen guerrilla organisations battling Indian rule in Kashmir since 1989.

* India has sealed the border with Nepal in the lawless northeastern state of Bihar ahead of assembly elections there to prevent cross-border violence by Maoist rebels, officials said Saturday. India’s Home Ministry has warned that Maoist rebel groups within the country are cooperating with guerrillas in Nepal, where a leftist insurgency has claimed more than 12,000 lives since 1996.

* India is accelerating the construction of a 2,500-mile fence to seal its border with Bangladesh amid growing fears that its Muslim neighbour could become "a new Afghanistan". Indian officials and western diplomats have been alarmed by an increase in terrorist attacks by militant groups linked to Al-Qaeda and by the Dhaka government’s failure to crack down on them.

* Some observers remain concerned that Bangladesh still could be exploited by extremists. Ajai Sahni is a terrorism expert at the Institute for Conflict Management, a New Delhi research center. He says the bombings three months ago were partly a recruiting tool for extremists seeking to consolidate their domestic support. Mr. Sahni says militants hope to eventually internationalize Bangladesh's extremist movement along the lines of Pakistan, where militants have been linked to a number of international terrorist groups.

* In Khost, Afghanistan, close to the Pakistani border, militants attacked a police station killing one policeman and injuring five others. In southern Helmand two policemen were killed in an ambush.

* Militants pulled a deputy provincial governor from his car and shot him dead and killed a former district chief while he prayed in a mosque in the latest attacks on supporters of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, officials said Saturday.

* Hundreds of Muslims attacked and burned two churches in Pakistan on Saturday after reports that a Christian man had desecrated Islam's holy book. No one was injured in the blazes. "No Christian burned copies of the Quran," said Shahbaz Bhatti, head of the All Pakistan Minorities Alliance.

Far East & Southeast Asia

* On Friday, Abu Sayyaf members ambushed a Filipino military patrol on the island of Jolo, leading to three days of intense fighting. Four Filipino soldiers and sixteen Abu Sayyaf terrorists have been killed.

* Indonesian authorities have announced that Dr. Azahari bin Husin, a top Jemaah Islamiyah bombmaker who was killed last week, was planning additional attacks and had 30 bombs at his residence in east Java when police raided it. The news comes as authorities continue an intense manhunt for Azahari's accomplice, Noordin Mohamad Top.

* Ansyaad Mbai, the head of Indonesian anti-terrorism forces, is warning that more terror attacks are likely in the coming days and weeks.

* Australia has indicated they are considering membership in a regional joint-counterterrorism task force being set up by Indonesia.

* On Thursday, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' summit will begin in Busan, South Korea, and Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is expected to highlight the fight against terrorism and poverty.

Europe

* Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has named the Queen of England as “one of the severest enemies of Islam” in an older video just obtained by the UK Sunday Times.

* A mutual suspicion is growing in Denmark between native Danes and minority Muslims.

* Websites used by al Qaeda members and other terrorists are urging Muslims around Europe to follow the example set by the rioters in France.

* Following the parliamentary defeat of his proposal to detain terror suspects for 90 days without charge, British Prime Minister Tony Blair is vowing to fight on, saying modern terrorism is on a "totally different in scale".

Africa

* By Dawn's Early Light writes, "the importance of the Horn of Africa as a key objective in the Global War on Terror is increasingly apparent." The job of CENTCOM's Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) is often more diplomatic than war-fighting.

* Pirate attacks off Somalia's coast are being organised from command vessels, or "mother ships", the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) has said. The IMB says pirates are still holding seven ships and their crews, seized in the world's most dangerous waters. In the past few days, at least four other vessels are reported to have been attacked. Captain Pottengal Mukundan, director of the IMB, says the situation off the coast of Somalia appears to be completely out of control.

* Somalia could become a terrorist haven because it is a failed state where the number of extremist groups is growing, the top U.N. envoy for the country warned last week. Francois Lonseny Fall said he told a closed meeting of the U.N. Security Council that "extremist groups were growing not only in Mogadishu (the capital) but in the rest of the territory" and were sometimes carrying out assassinations.

* Despite his claim of complete disarmament, the Federal Government of Nigeria said on Thursday that guns and live ammunition were recovered on Wednesday from the Port Harcourt residence of the detained leader of the Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force (NDPVF), Alhaji Mujahee Dokubo-Asari. A procesutor cited a newspaper interview where Dokubo was quoted as saying that he would die fighting for Nigeria’s disintegration.

* Violence continues in Ethiopia, and detained opposition leaders and editors will face treason charges according to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. The U.S. and EU pressed Ethiopia to release the opposition leaders. Eritrea has condemned neighbouring Ethiopia for "bloody suppression and atrocities" during the recent crackdown on unrest.

* On Tuesday and Wednesday the National Defense University will hold a symposium on the topic of Africa : Vital to U.S. Security?. The symposium will consider Africa’s strategic importance to the United States and how expanded U.S. and international engagement could best help African countries address key challenges to their security and become stronger partners in dealing with costly regional crises, global terrorism, and other transnational threats.

The Global War

* An article in the November issue of Air Force Magazine looks at the myriad of missions the Air Force is conducting worldwide. According to now former Acting Air Force Secretary Pete Geren, there is a widespread perception that the war in Iraq is a land-force affair. In Iraq and Afghanistan, the application of US airpower has been so effective that it is largely unseen. Most observers erroneously view the wars as Army and Marine Corps operations.

* Talks between Washington and Bishkek about payments for a military base used by the U.S. in Kyrgyzstan are going well, Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Alikbek Djekchenkulov said. The importance of the facility, established in 2001, has grown since Uzbekistan in July gave the U.S. six months to close its other Central Asian base.

* Recent comments by Iraq's national security advisor seem to bring into question an earlier CSIS report that many thought whitewashed the role Saudi jihadists are playing in Iraq.

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