Peace Like A River


It was a wide river, mistakable for a lake or even an ocean unless you'd been wading and knew its current. Somehow I'd crossed it... Now I saw the stream regrouped below, flowing on through what might've been vineyards, pastures, orhards... It flowed between and alongside the rivers of people; from here it was no more than a silver wire winding toward the city. - Leif Enger, Peace Like A River

Monday, November 07, 2005

Monday Winds of War Briefing

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Monday's Winds of War briefings are given by Security Watchtower and Peace Like a River.

Top Topics

* In France, youths set ablaze nearly 1,300 vehicles and torched businesses, schools and symbols of French authority, including post offices and provincial police stations, late Saturday and early Sunday. Police also found a gasoline bomb-making factory in a derelict building in Evry south of Paris. They confiscated 50 devices, fuel stocks and hoods for hiding rioters' faces. Gateway Pundit and The Bellmont Club both have good additional coverage and analysis.

* Amir Taheri takes a look at the first 100 days in office for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahamdinejad and says that he "believes that the world is heading for a clash of civilisations in which Islam is the only credible alternative to Western domination. And he is convinced that Islam can and will win."

* 150,000 Moroccans took to the streets in Casablanca to protests against al Qaeda, who is currently holding two Moroccan hostages in Iraq.

Other topics today include: Hamas looking for a home; Islamic Scholars reject child bombers; Iran and the EU; al Qaeda in Iran; Arab unrest in Iran; Azerbaijan elections; Mehlis to question Syrian officials; FBI arrests in LA; Release from Gitmo; Tajikistan battles radicals; US relief in Pakistan; Terrorism in Bangladesh; Thailand's insurgency; Indonesian travel advisory; Ba'asyir to stay in jail; Piracy in Somalia; UK suspects charged; Denial of secret CIA prisons; Ethiopia/Eritrea square off; Where is Osama?; Female jihadists; and more.

Iran & the Middle East

* Terrorist group Hamas has reportedly asked Egypt and Jordan if either would be prepared to host the organisation's headquarters, Tel-Aviv based daily Haaretz reported on Friday. Hamas fears that Syria - where it and rival Palestinian terror group Islamic Jihad's political leadership are currently based - may force the groups to leave.

* Islamic scholars interviewed by RFE/RL expressed concern over the report of a suicide bombing that was carried out by a child on 1 November in Iraq's northern city of Kirkuk. According to Western news agencies, the suicide bomber was between 10 and 13 years old and detonated his explosive belt as a car carrying Kirkuk's police chief passed nearby. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, which appears to be one of the first cases in which Iraqi insurgents have used a young boy to carry out such a suicide mission.

* Iran is calling for a new round of talks with the EU over their nuclear program in the wake of Kofi Annan's cancelled visit to Tehran.

* About 25 al-Qaeda leaders, including three of Osama bin Laden's sons, are running terrorist operations from their refuge in Iran rather than languishing under house arrest as the Teheran regime claims, intelligence officials have said. The disclosure comes as Maj-Gen James Dutton, the commander of British forces in south-eastern Iraq, reiterated on Friday that the technology for lethal new bombs was crossing into the country from Iran.

* A new U.S. intelligence report indicates that an overthrow of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria is unlikely to produce a successor any more supportive of U.S. policy in Iraq and elsewhere.

* According to reports, Sunni Arabs have clashed with Iranian police in the southeast province of Khuzestan, the site of several bombings this year.

* The parliamentary elections were held yesterday in Azerbaijan, and Registan has the full run down of the days events.

* UN investigator Detlev Mehlis has summoned six top Syrian intelligence officials for questioning in the death of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The list includes the brother-in-law of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

America Domestic Security & the America's

* FBI agents in Los Angeles have arrested four people with ties to Hong Kong for allegedly trying to smuggle sensitive material on U.S. military technology to mainland China, a press report said Nov. 4. The material included research into silent propulsion systems for U.S. warships, a technology that is banned from export to China, the South China Morning Post reported, citing an FBI affidavit.

* Several Muslim organisations in Trinidad held a closed-door emergency meeting Saturday to discuss statements made by Jamaat Al Muslimeen leader Yasin Abu Bakr during an Eid sermon at Mucurapo on Friday. In a sermon on Friday, Bakr warned that blood might flow next year as his group moved to collect zakaat (alms) from rich Muslims. The Jamaat leader went so far to call the names of some people and organisations who would be targeted, giving them the choice: pay zakaat to the Jamaat, or face the consequences.

* Three Bahraini's and a Saudi were transfered from the Guantanamo Bay facility to authorities in the native countries. There is some speculation that more transfers are forthcoming, but those remain unconfirmed.

* Daniel Sutherland, the head of Civil Rights for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, is urging Muslim air travelers to register before flying, to reduce chances of problems at the airport. The move comes at a time when Michael Chertoff is seeking ways to improve the department effeciency overall.

Russia & South/Central Asia

* The United States and Indian Air Forces are set to begin a joint military exercise today at the east Indian airbase of Kalaikunda that will last twelve days. India's communist party is threatening massive protests in response.

* At least 20 terrorists were involved in preparing and carrying out the three serial blasts that killed 59 and injured about 210 on Oct. 29. Friday's Hindustan Times quoted the police source as saying that, according to the initial investigation, the police found at least 20 terrorists were divided into four groups to carry out separated tasks for the serial blasts. Despite the initial report on the organization of the blasts, the police made little progress in tracking the suspects and identifying where they came from.

* Six foreign al Qaeda suspects were killed in the Pakistani tribal region near the Afghan border after a bomb they were building exploded.

* Tajikistan has branded the Islamic religious group "Bayat" as terrorists and extremists in the mold of the Taliban. According to Tajik Interior Minister Khumiddin Sharipov, "Sixteen members of this organization remain on the wanted list."

* Twenty four U.S. military helicopters have flown 1,056 missions into earthquake stricken Kashmir and the North Frontier provinces, delivering more than 4 million pounds of food and evacuating more than 3,200 injured Pakistani's.

* Last week in Bangladesh six powerful bombs and bomb-making materials were recovered in a hilly area in Chittagong. RAB (Rapid Action Battalion) sources said each of the recovered bombs is very powerful and could easily kill at least 50 people if it exploded in a crowded place. The RAB also found letter written in tribal language in which the names of twelve terrorists were mentioned but the date was illegible.

* Relations between Pakistan and Israel have been positive as of late, and are the topic of a CSIS South Asia Monitor briefing titled "Pakistan and Israel: An emerging detente" (pdf file).

* In the run-up to parliamentary elections in Chechnya on November 27, some are suggesting that the outcome is a foregone conclusion. Chechen state and government officials maintain that the elections will be a genuine exercise in electoral democracy. The militants themselves are making no comment on the upcoming elections.

* Two district level leaders from Nepal of the CPN (Maoist) were arrested in Darjeeling district of the Indian state of West Bengal on Saturday. The Maoist leaders, during interrogation, admitted to have been operating training camps in Nepal's Ilam district, reports added.

* PINR has an intelligence brief called "Russia in the S.C.O" that describes the Russian role in the organization and their relationship with China.

* An Al Qaeda website containing detailed instructions in Arabic on how to make nuclear, "dirty" and biological bombs has attracted more than 57,000 hits and hundreds of readers’ inquiries, reported British newspaper The Sunday Times. The newspaper said that terrorism experts were warning the site could be boosting the organisation’s appeal to would-be assassins in Britain and abroad.

Far East & Southeast Asia

* Thailand tacitly acknowledged Thursday that the violent unrest in its troubled Muslim-majority south was spreading, a day after overnight bomb blasts at electrical power plants and relay stations plunged part of the southern town of Narathiwat into darkness. The government, on Thursday, imposed martial law in two further southern districts in the adjacent province of Songkhla, the commercial centre of the southern region.

* The Australian government has issued a new travel advisory for Indonesia and warned that "recent new information suggests that terrorists may be planning attacks to occur before the end of 2005."

* A top leader of the al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf group (ASG), Radullan Sahiron, was captured in the southern Philippine province of Zamboanga Sibugay on Saturday, officials said. Sahiron is the second terrorist leader to be arrested in over a week. On October 26, security forces captured Ahmad Santos, chieftain of the Rajah Solaiman Movement (RSM), a group of radical Muslim converts.

* In an abrupt about-face, the government has decided not to grant convicted terrorist and Muslim cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir a sentence remission given to inmates in observance of Idul Fitri holiday. There was no explanation from government officials about why Ba'asyir was excluded from the list of 39,348 inmates who had their prison terms reduced.

* An article by Rommel C. Banlaoi in the Autumn issue of The Naval War College Review, entitled Maritime Terrorism In Southeast Asia, says the growing nexus between piracy and terrorism makes maritime terrorism in Southeast Asia a regional security concern. Because piracy is frequent in Southeast Asia, terrorists have found it an attractive cover for maritime terrorism.

* The Indonesian army has set up anti-terror desks to speed up and coordinate information-gathering and intelligence-sharing in its latest bid to fight the terror scourge in the country. The desks, which will operate in each of the 12 nationwide regional commands, will ensure tighter coordination between the police and the army, said Indonesian army spokesman Hotmangaradja Pandjaitan.

Europe

* A Dutch terrorism suspect arrested in October allegedly hoped to shoot down an El Al airliner at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport, a television program reported Friday, citing police and secret service documents. Samir Azzouz, 19, was one of seven suspects arrested in four Dutch cities on Oct. 14 on suspicion of plotting a terrorist attack.

* Three Muslims suspected of involvement with terrorism in the UK have been charged in a British court with an array of offenses, including fundraising for terror and conspiracy to commit murder.

* The European Commission said Friday it would encourage governments in Eastern Europe to comment on allegations that the CIA set up secret prisons in the region to interrogate al-Qaida suspects. U.S. officials have refused to confirm or deny the claims, but some EU diplomats are casting their doubts on the story.

* Sir Christopher Meyer, Britain's former ambassador to Washington, points towards the war in Iraq as one of the motivating factors in the emergence of local terrorists saying "there is plenty of evidence around at the moment that homegrown terrorism was partly radicalized and fueled by what is going on in Iraq."

Africa

* The biggest rebel movement in Sudan's war-torn Darfur region has chosen Minni Minnawi as their new leader. But Sudan Liberation Army's choice of Mr Minnawi seems certain to split the group, long beset by rivalries. For the last six days the SLA has been holding its congress deep in rebel-held Darfur.

* The British government’s decision in October 2005 to designate the al-Jama'a al-Islamiyyah al-Muqatilah fi-Libya (Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, LIFG) as a terrorist organization must have come as welcome news to Colonel Qadhafi, given that at its peak the group represented the strongest challenge the Libyan regime has ever faced. Following this designation the British authorities arrested five members of the LIFG.

* Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea continue to grow, with reports indicating that troops and military hardware are on the move on each side of the demilitarized zone.

* Sporadic violence was reported in northern Ethiopia on Saturday after four days of political unrest left at least 46 people dead and more than 200 injured, witnesses and diplomats said. Police fought opposition supporters protesting against alleged fraud in May elections. The opposition party CUD (Coalition for Unity and Democracy) has become increasingly vocal in its claims that elections held on May 15 were rigged by Meles’ Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolution Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition.

* A Seaborn Cruises luxury liner traveling off the coast of Somalia sailed into a serious attack by gunmen in speedboats early Saturday morning in an area known for violent piracy. Only one passenger received minor injuries. In mid-October, the International Maritime Bureau warned ships to stay as far away as possible from the Somali shore. In one travel advisory issued by the Australian governement security authorities, travelers are warned that the risk of terrorist attack against Western interests in Somalia remains high.

* A failed assassination attempt Sunday on the Prime Minister of Somalia and an attempt to hijack a luxury American cruise ship Saturday off the coast has reinforced fears that the country is spiralling out of control as a centre of al-Qa'ida terrorism. Three people were killed in the attack on the Prime Minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi, as he visited the chaotic capital Mogadishu.

The Global War

* Osama bin Laden has been publicly silent for the longest period since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. He was last seen in a videotaped message to Americans on Oct. 29, 2004, saying the United States could avoid another Sept. 11 attack if it stopped threatening the security of Muslims.

* Despite Iraq and Afghanistan remaining the central focus in the war against terrorism, the US is more concerned with the Al-Qaeda movement said Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, Deputy Director of Plans and Strategy for Central Command. Kimmitt a senior American military strategist, told a group of Arab Journalists at the American Embassy, in central London, that the US believes that even if Iraq and Afghanistan would stabilize tomorrow there would still be a residual and long-term presence of al Qaeda and its associates in the region.

* Writing for the Jamestown Foundation, Farhana Ali writes that Muslim women are increasingly joining the global jihad. The use of Muslim women for suicide attacks by male-dominated terrorist groups could have implications on the jihadi mindset, challenging more conservative groups such as al-Qaeda to reconsider the utility of the Muslim woman on the front lines of jihad.

* Twelve conflict situations around the world deteriorated in October 2005, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch. Six conflict situations improved in October 2005. For November 2005, CrisisWatch identifies Kyrgyzstan and Ethiopia/Eritrea as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month.

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