Could the French riots happen in Russia?

The Russian government paid very close attention to the revolutions in first Georiga, then Ukraine, and then Kyrgyzstan, revolutions in which old orders were swept away in popular democratic demonstrations. In all three countries, frustration with government corruption boiled over.

With ever worsening demographic and economic problems, Russia may be ripe for internal revolt, and Putin's government fears the turmoil that may be loosed as Russian society crumbles.

An editorial at OpinionJournal today briefly highlights some of the things I've mentioned here before.

Russia has suffered an extraordinary long-term deterioration of public health: Life expectancy is lower today than 40 years ago, and Russia's mortality upswing is concentrated in the "working ages." For Russians between 30 and 60, for example, death rates have shot up by over 45% since 1970. Demographers have low expectations for future progress in health--the U.S. Census Bureau, for instance, projects that Russia's male life expectancy will remain lower than India's through 2025, and beyond.

Per-capita income in Russia is now barely one fourth of the European Union. Looking forward, it is difficult to see how Russia can hope to achieve an Irish standard of living if its labor force still faces an Indian (or worse) schedule of survival. Population aging in the context of poor or even declining health poses special challenges. The aging of Russia's workforce (median age for the 15-64 group will rise about three-and-a-half years between now and 2025) means that the health situation for Russian manpower could be less favorable in the future.

The specter of a swelling population of pensioners dependent for support on an unhealthy and diminishing population of low-income workers conjures up grim political choices. Should Russian resources be channeled to capital accumulation, or to consumption for the unproductive elderly? Given Russia's population structure, that question will be impossible to finesse.

As these disturbing trends collide in a race to the bottom, the resulting instability may once again cause Russians to hear the word "revolution" whispered around dinner tables.

Already there are youth movements springing up, inspired by the popular movements that brought down governments in the aforementioned countries, especially Ukraine. As this Washington Post article reports:

"There is an Orange spirit in Russia," said Andrei Sidelnikov, the young head of the new Russian youth group Pora! (It's Time!), which took its name from the young activists at the heart of the street protests late last year that ultimately brought Viktor Yushchenko to power in Ukraine. "We are living through a new era of street politics. Our young people are becoming more and more active. . . . They might explode when they can't take it any longer."

Sidelnikov's assessment, delivered at a Moscow news conference this week, would have seemed ludicrous a few months ago. But following the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, the government of President Vladimir Putin was unexpectedly shaken by thousands of retirees who took to the streets to protest cuts in their benefits. They were joined by the youth wings of opposition political parties.

The government quickly backed down and the challenge dissipated, but the fear or expectation of radical change has lingered.
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In recent months, besides Pora!, groups with names such as Defense and Walking Without Putin have been formed to fight what they describe as an emerging dictatorship.

The government is taking steps to counter these developments. A pro-Putin youth group named Nashi (Ours) has been formed, reportedly by Putin deputy Vladislav Surkov. It is an attempt to capture the hearts and minds of the youth before societal conditions turn them against the government.

"We're still an unstable country, and the lads have to be trained, educated," Pavlovskii said. "What will they do in the event of an attempt such as the one in August 1991, an attempt to overthrow Putin? Sit and listen to lectures? They have to get up, go into the street, and stop the putsch. It means they have to know how to do this. They have to know how to stop and break up a fascist demonstration. Break it up with the use of force. How else?"
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Life at the camp is strikingly reminiscent of the Soviet era -- youngsters call each other "comrade" and cartoons hung between pine trees portray Soviet heroes fighting capitalists, fascists, and American politicians.

Nashi describes Russian liberal politicians, wealthy oligarchs, and radical youth groups as its enemies and tends to brand them as "fascists."

At the Seliger camp, most youths, like this young man, are also eager to extol the virtues of patriotism. "The young generation is the future of Russia," he told RFE/RL's Russian Service. "If patriotic views are not created now for the young generation, if everybody goes to America and so on, Russia won't hold out for very long."

The danger, though, is that groups such as Nashi, in their zeal to fight fascism, as they perceive, will fall prey to another disturbing trend in Russia, that of xenophobia. Attacks against foreign minorities are on the rise in Russia. The fear is that groups like Nashi will turn into gangs of skinheads.

This article in The Moscow Times details some of the past incidents in Russia.

Is there anywhere left in Russia where foreign students can study without getting their heads bashed in by nationalist extremists? Such was surely the question in the mind of the Ecuadorian diplomat who recently escorted two co-nationals from Voronezh to Belgorod, where they hope to complete their studies in peace. The Ecuadorians were following in the footsteps of dozens of their foreign classmates who have fled racist violence in Voronezh. The last straw for the Ecuadorians was the murder of a Peruvian student there last month.
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According to a Nov. 2 article in the Belgorod newspaper Zhityo Bytyo, in early October a fourth-year Ghanaian student at a local university was set upon near campus. Three attackers beat him for several minutes before retreating; no robbery or attempted robbery of the victim was reported.
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Nor have better police practices hindered their comrades in other cities. Reports of attacks on foreign students, most of whom are from developing countries, come in with disturbing regularity from all corners of the country. This month, a Chinese student was stabbed in St. Petersburg by a group of youths (who apparently made no attempt to rob their victim); a Columbian student was slashed with a knife in Nizhny Novgorod by a young man who reportedly didn't like his accent; in Murmansk skinheads attacked a Peruvian man; and in Krasnodar a Kenyan student said he was denied medical treatment at hospitals after a group of young men beat him up.

There were two incidents in St. Petersburg last week.

Timur Kacharava, a student at the St. Petersburg State University and frequent participant in anti-fascist meetings, was murdered on Ligovsky Prospekt on Sunday night. A preliminary police investigation revealed that Kacharava and his friend Maxim Zagibai, who is currently in hospital with severe injuries to his head and chest, were attacked by a group of youngsters at about 18.30 outside a bookstore, Interfax reported.
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In another incident, a fight broke out between two Russian men and a group of African students early Friday morning, leaving one of the Russian men hospitalized, and investigators are trying to determine whether the incident was racially motivated or simply a drunken brawl.
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The issue of immigrants and foreign students in Russia has been hotly debated in recent weeks.

Following the incident on Friday, the Moscow Helsinki Group issued a statement accusing the Russian authorities of failing to respond to displays of extremism and indulging nationalists.

"The country’s law enforcement agencies and courts are going to every length to protect nationalists," Lyudmila Alexeyeva, the organization’s chairperson told reporters Friday. "The recent wave of ethnically-motivated attacks is a shame on this country."

An article in the current issue of The Atlantic Monthly described efforts of former world chess champion Garry Kasparov to effect the "dismantlement of the [Putin] regime". According to the article:

He is a revolutionary, goaded into action by the Kremlin's authoritarianism and the impotence of the liberal opposition, and he has concluded that Russia's fate will be decided through something resembling the mass protests that recently toppled corrupt governments in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan.

The article describes some speaking engagements Kasparov makes, and at one of them Kasparov challenges some members of Nashi. (Nashi considers Kasparov an enemy.)

[Kasparov] smiled. Some in the crowd winced at his words; for understandable reasons, Russians as a rule distrust talk of revolution. But he didn't slow down. Reminding the audience that Putin had strangled the media and cut off channels of communication with the people, thereby consigning resistance to the streets, he hit his stride. "We must do everything so that money remains in the regions, where it is earned, to solve the regions' problems. Moscow is a giant vacuum cleaner sucking up the wealth of the regions and sending it abroad." Capital flight, around $2 billion in 2003, hit $7.9 billion in 2004 and is expected to reach $10 billion this year. "Why, five years after the sinking of the Kursk submarine [and the loss of the 118 sailors aboard it], do we still have no naval rescue service? Why is Russia selling nuclear technology to Iran when Iran sponsors Islamic terrorism—a grave threat to us? Why are we selling weapons to China and supporting the Chinese geopolitical agenda—the gravest threat to Russia, and a country with claims to our territory that it doesn't bother to hide? Our army has been reduced to nothing. Our cities are collapsing ..."

The Nashi youths stirred, crossing their arms and cocking their heads. Kasparov shifted gears and addressed them.

"I have one question for you," he said. "Why did President Putin award the highest medal of honor in Russia, the Order of Hero of Russia (the same order given to the defenders of Moscow against the German Nazis in World War II!), to Akhmad Kadyrov [the Chechen rebel leader, assassinated last year, whom Putin chose to administer Chechnya] and his son, Ramzan [his successor], bandits and murderers of our Russian soldiers? Tell me, why?"

The hall was silent. The Nashi members dropped their eyes to the floor.

"Why? I ask you again, why did the president cheapen our award by giving it to the murderers of our soldiers, of guys your own age? Answer me!"

"We'll ask him when we see him," one grumbled, eyes downcast.

Russia may not face widespread rioting by disaffected Muslim youths, because Russia does not have the same kind of large, isolated Muslim communities that Paris does.

However, Russia faces a very real threat from within, as Russian pensioners seek to preserve their safety net, while at the same time the youth either seek to preserve Russia from perceived outside influence, or react against a government perceived as dictatorial. Russia is sitting on a powder keg. The match may not be Islam, but rather the serious economic challenges Russia faces. It will take skillful leadership, both inside and outside of Russia, to keep that match from being lit.

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linked to the Stop The ACLU open post