Peace Like A River


It was a wide river, mistakable for a lake or even an ocean unless you'd been wading and knew its current. Somehow I'd crossed it... Now I saw the stream regrouped below, flowing on through what might've been vineyards, pastures, orhards... It flowed between and alongside the rivers of people; from here it was no more than a silver wire winding toward the city. - Leif Enger, Peace Like A River

Monday, June 05, 2006

Monday Winds of War Briefing

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Friday. Monday's Winds of War briefings are given by Peace Like a River and Security Watchtower.

Top Topics

* A day after security council nations agreed to a proposal to present Teheran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has reiterated that Iran would not surrender enrichment activities. On Saturday, Iranian officials said they would consider proposals before presenting their position. According to U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, Iran is determined to have a nuclear weapon and could possess one within 10 years.

* The Friday arrest of two men at a suspected bomb-making factory in East London is a stern reminder of the continuing threat Britain faces from Islamic extremists. According to security services, the arrests were not related to the London subway attacks last July, but to a new set of plots thought to involve the use of chemicals. Some reports indicate authorities were searching for a chemical weapons vest and MI5 operative suspect the men were plotting a subway attack using nerve gas.

* The last two weeks have seen an ambitious Taliban offensive shot to pieces. As many as a thousand Taliban gunmen, in half a dozen different groups, have passed over the Pakistani border, or been gathered within Afghanistan, and sent off to try and take control of remote villages and districts. The offensive was a major failure, with nearly half the Taliban getting killed, wounded or captured.

* Seventeen Canadian residents were in custody Saturday on terrorism-related charges, including plots to use explosives in attacks on Canadian soil, authorities said. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police said they arrested 12 male adults and five youth and foiled plans for terrorist attacks against targets in southern Ontario. C.S. Scott has put together an excellent roundup on this story.

Other topics today include: Fatah-Hamas on the brink of civil war; Clashes in Gaza; Hamas rejects Abbas plan; Khamenei warns U.S. over oil supply; Terror attack in Damascus; Sinai bombers killed; Fatah march of force; Explosions in Turkey; Iran to publish incentive package; Senior Hamas leader killed in Gaza; USS Cole heads for Gulf; Tour of Gaza rocket factory; scrutiny of Muslim communities in Mexico; Hugo Chavez and Carlos the Jackal; Russian rifles arrive in Venezuela; Russia outlaws two Islamist groups; Roadside bombings in Chechnya; Russia eyes Mediterranean base; Putin warns NATO; Fighting in southern Afghanistan; suicide car bombing outside of Kandahar; Aftermath of Kabul riots; NATO to double troops in Afghanistan; Kandahar governor escapes car bombing; Violence in Waziristan continues; Panel discussion on Balochistan; IED kills 12 Indian police; Cocaine bust off coast of India; Maoist rebels gather in Nepal; Sri Lanka looks at autonomy for Tamils; Asahara nears execution; NPA kills Filipino soldiers; Violence in East Timor; al Jazeera journalist jailed as al Qaeda; German female suicide bomber thwarted; UAVs to watch European borders; Denmark passes anti-terror legislation; Kidnappings in Nigeria; UN boost peacekeepers in Ivory Coast; Fighting continues in Somalia; and more.

Iran & the Middle East

* If cornered by the West over its nuclear program, Iran could direct Hezbollah to enlist its widespread international support network to aid in terrorist attacks according to U.S. intelligence officials. The AP reports that U.S. officials are studying Iran's retaliation options.

* Five Palestinians were killed in Gaza on Sunday in two separate incidents. In Khan Younis, a Hamas vehicle was fired on by suspected Fatah gunmen, killing two people. In Gaza city, three more were gunned down at a Fatah memorial function, with Hamas being blamed for the attack.

* Hamas has rejected an ultimatum from President Mahmoud Abbas to endorse a plan implicitly recognizing Israel.

* A Turkish soldier was killed on Friday during a military operation against militants with the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in southeast Turkey. The operation, part of an annual spring offensive spanning several provinces of the mountainous southeast region, was proceeding at full force, backed up by helicopter gunships.

* In a speech on Iranian state television, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that fuel shipments from the Gulf region could be disrupted if the US makes a "wrong move". Khamenei also reiterated that Iran would not surrender enrichment rights.

* A terror attack in Damascus on Friday left four gunmen along with one security guard dead. "The security force dealt effectively with the group as shown from the number of casualties among its members," according to Fayez al-Sayegh, head of Syrian radio and television. The Syrian government is pointing the finger of blame at the United States and Israel.

* On Saturday morning, three terrorists alleged to have been involved in the recent Sinai bombings in Dahab were killed in a shootout with Egyptian security forces.

* In the West Bank, more than 2,500 Fatah militiamen marched through the town of Jenin on Saturday in a show of force aimed at Hamas. A senior Fatah official warned that Hamas is pushing the Palestinians towards civil war.

* An explosion in the Turkish port city of Mersin on Saturday left eight people wounded and authorities investigating the cause. One report cited a hand grenade while another cited a remote detonation.

* Fatah has swept the Al-Quds University student elections, winning 80 percent of the vote from the five institutes. An estimated 10,000 students voted in the election.

* The Daily Star reports that an Islamic revival is spreading in Syria, despite the rule of the secular Ba'athists. "The relationship between the government and the direction of Islam is now suitable," said Mohammad Habbash, the country's leading Islamist MP and head of the Islamic Studies Center in Damascus. "We can now speak about what role Islam can play in people's lives." Habbash's recent invitation to lecture army cadets on religious morals - the first time the Syrian military has officially cooperated with Islamist figures since the Baath Party came to power in 1963 - is just one of a series of recent moves to allow Islam into public life.

* Hundreds of Palestinian security officers threw stones at the Gaza parliament building, breaking windows, in a protest about unpaid salaries. They demanded the government pay wages for the first time since February. On Sunday PA workers began withdrawing wages.

* President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Iran would publish details of the package of incentives and possible penalties prepared by the United States and five other major powers aimed at halting Iran's nuclear program. In a speech in which he warned Iran's critics against "threats and intimidation," Ahmadinejad sweept aside a request by U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan to keep the process confidential.

* Abdel Hadi Siyam, a senior member of the Hamas military wing, was shot in the chest in a driveby shooting in Gaza City on Saturday. According to Hamas, Siyam was fired at in the same neighborhood two months ago by Palestinian security forces.

* The USS Cole is heading to the Middle East for the first time since terrorists bombed the Navy ship almost six years ago in Yemen, killing 17 sailors. The guided missile destroyer is one of seven ships with 6,000 sailors and Marines leaving the East Coast next week to conduct maritime security operations in support of the global war on terror.

* Ben Weddemen of CNN tours a Gaza rocket factory operated by the al Aqsa Martyr Brigade.

* Disagreements emerged in Sunday's cabinet meeting between Defense Minister Amir Peretz and Public Security Minister Avi Dichter over the appropriate response Israel should adopt over the launching of Qassam rockets from the Gaza Strip against targets inside Israel. Dichter said that the IDF should escalate its operations and, if necessary, reoccupy parts of the Gaza Strip to ensure that no rockets are fired against Israeli towns. Peretz said that the reoccupation of parts of the Gaza Strip was not a relevant tactic.

* Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has indicated he is ready to meet with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to discuss the stalled Middle East peace process. The announcement came from the Egyptian resort of Sharm al-Sheikh, after talks with President Hosni Mubarak that included discussion of the killing of two Egyptian police officers at the border.

* Thirty-two women will be among 402 parliamentary candidates standing for election in Kuwait on 29 June, the first time in the history of the Gulf Arab state that women will be allowed to seek office.

America Domestic Security & the Americas

* In assessing the threat of illegal immigration, Muslim communities in Mexico have come under increasing scrutiny by U.S., Mexican and international security officials both as potential enablers for terrorist infiltration and as ideological sympathizers for the brand of radicalism characteristic of al-Qaeda. Muslim conversion trends in Mexico and Latin America have also raised concerns, especially given al-Qaeda's successes in luring some Muslim converts to its cause.

* The Bush administration has spent $2 billion to protect Washington D.C. since the September 11 attacks -- assigning law-enforcement personnel, rerouting traffic and erecting barriers -- and countless millions have been disbursed by state and local governments to avoid a gridlock catastrophe in the event of another attack. But the prospect of being able to get either in or out of the city without being caught in a massive traffic jam remains in doubt in the event of an incident or the evacuation of government buildings.

* The panel that guided the distribution of $711 million in antiterrorism money in a process that led to New York City's share being reduced by 40 percent is a shadow player in the war on terror, its work kept secret and its members shielded from view.

* The Canadian government has appealed a judge's decision to release on bail an Algerian man she had found to have lied about being part of Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network, a spokeswoman said on Thursday.

* President Hugo Chavez brought up Carlos the Jackal during a meeting of oil producers Thursday, calling the Venezuela-born terrorist who once took hostages at an OPEC meeting "a good friend." Carlos, whose real name is Ilich Ramirez Sanchez, gained notoriety during the Cold War for staging a string of bombings and assassinations. He is serving a life sentence for murder in France.

* Venezuela on Saturday received 30,000 Russian-made assault rifles, the first shipment in a deal for 100,000 rifles. Russia will deliver the remaining 70,000 rifles in two shipments, in August and October, Maniglia told government media.

Russia, Caucasus & Central Asia

* The Russian Supreme Court has outlawed the Islamic Jihad Group (known in Russia as Jamaata Mojahedin) and Jund-al-Sham (Soldiers of the Levant). “These organizations have been outlawed in a number of countries. They pose a danger to Russia,” said Alexander Novokshchenov, a senior prosecutor, adding that they had carried out terrorist attacks in Chechnya, Uzbekistan, and Lebanon.

* Unidentified gunmen in the Republic of Ingushetia, open fired on a military vehicle transporting troops, killing one soldier and wounding two others. Authorities have launched a manhunt to find the attackers.

* Five Russian police officers were wounded in three separate roadside bombing attacks on Sunday in Chechnya.

* Russia is denying a report that Moscow hopes to create a permanent naval base in Syria that would give it a Mediterranean outpost and represent a major shift in the regional security balance. Russia is currently working on deepening the Syrian port of Tartus and is also widening a channel in another Syrian port, Latakia.

* Vladimir Putin spoke on Friday night about the relationship between Russia and the United States, saying there were more pluses than minuses, but he warned Washington about NATO expansion and signaled that Russia won't blindly follow the Americans into sanctions against Iran. Putin also reiterated that Russia was against the use of force on Iran under any circumstances.

* One Russian diplomat was killed and four others kidnapped when their embassy vehicle was attacked in the Mansour district of Baghdad on Saturday.

* The World Newspaper Association (WAN) is meeting in Moscow on Monday, despite criticism of Vladamir Putin's clampdown on the media. At the top of the agenda is the Mohammed cartoon that appeared in the Danish newspapers and sparked controversy.

Afghanistan & Southern Asia

* Taliban-led rebels were still in control of a district in southern Afghanistan more than 24 hours after forcing out government troops, a military general said. Scores of Taliban militants stormed Chora district of southern Uruzgan province late Tuesday, overrunning the police and district headquarters.

* Dozens of Afghan and coalition troops retook a southern Afghanistan district from Taliban fighters in an assault in which at least 15 rebels were killed, the defence ministry said. The troops dropped from coalition aircraft stormed remote Chora district in southcentral Uruzgan province late Friday and pushed Taliban fighters back into nearby mountains.

* Three civilian men riding a motorbike were killed when a suspected suicide car bomb exploded near a convoy of Canadian and Afghan troops in southern Afghanistan, police said. The bomb exploded on a stretch of highway about 15 kilometres (nine miles) northeast of Kandahar city, said the police chief of Kandahar province's Arghandab district, named only Zamarai.

* U.S. troops fired into a crowd of stone-throwing rioters, killing at least three Afghans, as their convoy left the scene of an accident that triggered anti-American riots, Kabul's chief of highway police said on Thursday. General Amanullah Gozar told Reuters he had witnessed Monday's incident, from the point when a U.S. military truck ran out of control down a hill, crashing into vehicles and killing at least five people, to the clashes afterwards, and when U.S. troops opened fire.

* Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai has sacked dozens of senior police officials days after anti-U.S. riots in Kabul, an official said on Saturday. The shake-up includes Kabul's police chief, General Jamil Junbish, whose forces failed to prevent rioters from rampaging through the city on Monday after a U.S. military truck crashed into Afghan vehicles and killed at least five people.

* The offensives against NATO forces in Afghanistan are particularly strong this spring, the commander of the Dutch armed forces said, shortly after Dutch soldiers were ambushed in the south of the country. "We were expecting a resurgence of offensives in spring, but not like this. However the attacks are not of such a nature that it will keep us from carrying out our mission," General Dick Berlijn said at a press briefing in The Hague.

* NATO will deploy twice as many troops to southern Afghanistan as a U.S.-led coalition has had there in recent years and it will adopt new tactics in an attempt to quash a burgeoning rebellion, the new commander of the NATO force said Sunday.

* Afghan security forces said Saturday they had killed 12 suspected Taleban and captured 18 others. In one incident, dozens of suspected Taleban rebels stormed a police checkpost late Friday north of Kandahar city, the main urban centre in the troubled south, said Daud Ahmadi, spokesman for the Kandahar governor.

* A suicide car bomb exploded Sunday near a Canadian military convoy carrying the governor of Afghanistan's southern Kandahar province, missing the apparent target but killing three civilians and injuring a dozen, officials said. The target appeared to be the governor of the province.

* Two suspected terrorists have been captured in Afghanistan and a bomb exploded in a bazaar in Khost, in the Paktika Province. The American Forces Press Service reported that the makeshift bomb injured three civilians. Coalition forces captured two men in Paktika's Sharan district.

* A bomb exploded as Pakistani police were investigating it in a trouble-plagued region on the border with Afghanistan, killing one policeman and wounding three, a government official said on Saturday.

* Four Pakistani soldiers were killed and eight wounded in a suicide car-bombing in a troubled tribal region near the Afghan border. Two militants also died in the blast targeting two military vehicles from a convoy that had stopped to deal with mechanical problems in North Waziristan.

* At least two Pakistani soldiers were killed and two wounded when pro-Taliban militants attacked a paramilitary convoy in remote tribal region near the Afghan border, officials said. Fighting erupted on Sunday between security forces and militants following the attack near Miranshah leaving a tribal policeman dead and six injured, witnesses said.

* A recent panel discussion at the US Institute of Peace looked at the crisis in Balochistan, and factors in the unrest there.

* At least 12 policemen have been killed in a landmine blast triggered by suspected rebels in the eastern Indian state of Jharkhand, police say. The incident took place when a police team was attempting to defuse a bomb planted in a school building in the West Singhbhum district.

* India's Narcotics Control Bureau has seized 200 kilograms (440 pounds) of cocaine worth over 40 million dollars from a cargo ship near Mumbai, officials said.

* Here are the daily updates from the South Asia Terrorism Portal for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

* More than 100,000 Maoist rebels and supporters thronged Kathmandu where top leaders addressed their first mass meeting here and offered to merge forces with Nepal's army. The giant gathering swelled to around 180,000 people, according to estimates by diplomats, overflowing a large open air theatre earmarked for the event.

* Sri Lanka has moved closer to granting more autonomy to minority Tamils under a new initiative backed by the opposition, as the United States warned against a return to full-scale war on the island.

Far East & Southeast Asia

* According to Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, "regional governments have substantially disrupted the operational capacity of the Jemaah Islamiyah, but dangerous JI operatives are still at large, recruiting and training new members in the pursuit of their own violent agenda."

* Following the arrest of 12 terror suspects in Malaysia said to belong to Jemaah Islamiyah splinter group Darul Islam, the Filipino military has acknowledged it had no information on the group that trained several members in the southern Philippines.

* Lawyers for Shoko Asahara, the founder of the Aum Shinrikyo cult which carried out the sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway that killed 12 people, will make a final attempt to spare him from execution on Monday.

* The Philippines' largest Islamic rebel group said on Thursday it doubted whether a peace deal could be signed this year due to difficulties in agreeing the size and wealth of a proposed Muslim homeland. The government had hoped to strike a deal for a homeland for 3 million Muslims on the southern island of Mindanao by mid-September but talks have dragged over how much territory to sign over and how to split the region's rich resources.

* The United States has broad support for a resolution it plans to introduce in the UN Security Council compelling Myanmar's military junta to change its repressive policies, but in a rare move Japan has joined with China and Russia in opposing the resolution.

* The New People's Army (NPA) communist insurgents have killed at least three Filipino soldiers in an ambush in the mountains of the northern Philippines.

* A U.N. official warned Saturday that violence could spill into refugee camps where tens of thousands of East Timorese have sought haven from fighting between military factions and rival gangs. Aid workers estimate 100,000 residents have fled to more than 30 camps in Dili since violence erupted last month.

* On Sunday, fresh fighting broke out in a district of East Timor's capital Dili. Youths threw rocks, set fire to homes and smashed windows in another eruption of the violence which has left at least 20 people dead in two weeks. Malaysian and Australian troops sent to try to quell the unrest kicked in doors as they searched for weapons. Tens of thousands of people have fled to refugee camps since the violence flared two weeks ago.

Europe

* On Friday, the Oxford University Student Union (OUSU) passed a motion to twin with Birzeit University, a Hamas dominated institution in the West Bank, setting off outrage from some students. Earlier in the week, Britain's largest lecturers' union, the National Association of Teachers in Further and Higher Education (NATFHE), voted to boycott Israeli lecturers and academic institutions who do not publicly dissociate themselves from Israel's "apartheid policies".

* Scotland's emergency services would be overwhelmed in the event of a major terrorist attack according to a government watchdog. Two reports from the chief fire officer for Scotland warned that failure to deal with outdated equipment and control structures would place the public at greater risk.

* Al Jazeera journalist Tayseer Allouni has been jailed for seven years by the Spanish Supreme Court for having links to al Qaeda and collaborating with Osama bin Laden's group.

* A German woman who converted to Islam has been placed under surveillance after police thwarted her attempt to travel to Iraq and become a suicide bomber. The 40-year-old, identified only as Sonja B., is one of three German women said to have used the internet to disclose their intention to carry out missions against US soldiers.

* Questions are being raised in the British press over the circumstances of a huge anti-terror raid here two days ago as police questioned two terror suspects, one of whom was shot in the operation.

* European countries are planning to use fleets of UAVs with powerful cameras to patrol Europe's borders to thwart people-smuggling, illegal immigration and terrorism.

* Denmark's parliament adopted two new anti-terror measures conceived in the aftermath of the July 2005 London terrorist attacks. The new laws give the Danish Security Intelligence Service (PET) broader access to the financial and medical records of suspects and to communications made by suspected terrorists and details of airplane passenger lists without a warrant. They also allow expanded use of video monitoring in public areas like those employed in the UK.

Africa

* Mauritanian security services have rounded up dozens of suspected members and supporters of an al Qaeda-linked Islamic rebel group who were plotting attacks, security sources said on Friday. At least two of the detainees were suspected of involvement in a June 2005 raid on a remote military post which killed 15 Mauritanian soldiers while another was accused of belonging to an al Qaeda cell in Barcelona, Spain, the sources said. The arrests were made during a manhunt for three suspected members of the Algerian-based militant Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) who escaped from a jail in Mauritania's capital Nouakchott on April 27.

* Eight Westerners -- six British, one American and one Canadian -- were kidnapped while working on an offshore oil rig in Nigeria, the platform's owners said. Nigerian police confirmed the abductions, the latest in a series, saying they were hunting for the perpetrators, and no claim of responsibility or demands had been made.

* Nigerian militants on Sunday released eight foreign oil rig workers, who looked tired but unharmed after two days in captivity. Police involved in negotiating the release of the six Britons, one American and one Canadian would not say whether a ransom was paid.

* Thirteen years ago, the US pulled out of the east African country after the bloody events that inspired 'Black Hawk Down'. Now it is back, supporting warlords in their battle with Islamist militants. Kim Sengupta reports from Merka.

* The U.N. Security Council on Friday added 1,500 peacekeepers to its mission in Ivory Coast in renewed efforts to restore order in the troubled West African country. The increase, which lasts until the middle of December, is meant to address council concerns about "the persistence of the crisis" in Ivory Coast and obstacles to peace there.

* Eritrea has responded to a recent United Nations resolution to cut the number of peacekeepers on its tense border with Ethiopia, by calling the move unjust. The U.N. Security Council voted on Wednesday to cut the number of troops policing the border from 3,300 to 2,300 after Ethiopia failed to agree on a shared border drawn by international experts and Eritrea refused to end restrictions on peacekeepers' movements.

* A visa fraud ring operating around the United States embassy in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, has been broken up according to Kenyan officials. They said 77 people were arrested when Kenyan police and the US authorities carried out a joint sting operation.

* Somalia's Islamic Courts militia has seized a key town outside the capital, Mogadishu, from a member of the warlord alliance it is fighting. Balad, 30km (19 miles) north of Mogadishu, lies on the main road to Somalia's most fertile regions.

* Five people were killed in fighting between Islamic militiamen and their secular rivals on the outskirts of Somalia's war-torn capital Saturday. Hundreds fled their homes but hundreds of other Somalis celebrated after the two sides ended a month long standoff in the Sii-Sii area, the center of many of the worst clashes in recent weeks.

* A report from the International Crisis Group looks at the deteriorating situation in Chad, and wonders if war is ahead. Chad is next door to Darfur, and the unrest there has spilled over into Chad.

The Global War

* Abu Musab al-Zarqawi railed against Shiites in a four hour audiotape posted on the Internet on Friday, saying militias are raping women and killing Sunnis and the community must fight back.

* India is ready to do its part to ensure peace and stability in East Asia including helping protect the busy Strait of Malacca, Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee said. He told a high-level regional security conference in Singapore that India would increasingly become a key driver of Asian prosperity alongside other big countries like China, Japan and Indonesia.

* US Defence Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld called Iran the world’s leading terrorist nation yet hoped Teheran seriously would consider incentives from the West in exchange for suspending suspect nuclear activities. Rumsfeld, attending an annual security conference, also took aim Saturday at Russia and China for allowing Iran’s involvement in a group [SCO] that has stated opposition to terrorism and extremists.

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