A plan for victory in Iraq

Frederick Kagan has an article in the Weekly Standard entitled A Plan for Victory in Iraq.

It is a serious plan, and worth considering. His thesis is that victory cannot come until the insurgency is neutralized to the point the Iraqis can provide security for their people. When citizens will not provide intelligence on the terrorists because of the real fear they will be murdered for doing so, the country cannot go forward.

Today, the Sunni Arab insurgency is the single most powerful force for disorder and violence in Iraq. Shiite militias, present since the beginning of the occupation, have grown in power in response to the spectacular bombings conducted by Islamist terrorists. Those terrorists, some of them foreigners, rely on the Sunni Arab community for safe havens, supplies, and other necessary assistance. They receive that support primarily because fear and disorder prevail. The breakdown of law and order in parts of the country reflects the difficulty of a robust Iraqi police force in the face of the insurgents' continuous attacks.

Here is his plan in a nutshell.

With an additional 7 brigades devoted to active combat operations, it should be possible to conduct clear-hold-build operations in two phases, totaling perhaps 12 to 18 months of significant combat, followed by a longer-term commitment of substantially smaller numbers of "leave-behind" forces. The general concept of the operation is to move from the outside in.

Phase I - The first phase of the operation would clear the three river valleys except for Ramadi.

Phase II - When clearing operations were completed, the ISF troops that had participated would remain in place to consolidate, supported by about 5 American battalions (2.5 brigades). That would leave about 9 battalions (4.5 brigades), in addition to those already deployed in Iraq, to continue active operations in the second phase: clearing Ramadi and the southern suburbs of Baghdad, and beginning to clear Baghdad itself.

There is much more in the article. Do give it some time.