The Persian Pufferfish

Pufferfish: They are named for their ability to inflate themselves to several times their normal size by swallowing water or air when threatened

Iran: see previous definition

In recent days Iran has made two attempts to scare away the US and any ally contemplating military action against Iran.

On Friday, Iran claimed to have launched a stealthy missile capable of hitting multiple targets. Security Watchtower points out the flaws in this claim.

Uzi Rubin, an Israeli missile expert and former director of Israel’s Arrow missile defense program expressed doubts about the claim of the "new missile", saying "the description does not match the picture" shown on television. Rubin instead says the description of the new missile "fits almost word-for-word the way the Russians describe the Iskander-E (SS26), with one exception -- the Russians don’t claim the capability to ‘hit several targets’." FAS describes the Iskander-E:

"The launch installation has two missiles with a range of 280 kilometers. Each missile has a 480 kilogram warhead consisting of 54 elements. The system can be used against small and large targets. The Iskander missile can easily overcome air defense systems. It's almost impossible to prevent a launch of an Iskander missile because of the system's mobility. Targets can be found not only by satellite and aircraft but also by a conventional intelligence center and by a soldier who directs artillery fire. Targets can also be found from photos, which will be put into a computer by means of a scanner. The self-direction device functions even in fog or darkness. Only the Iskander system can accomplish such tasks." - FAS

I asked one other source in the field of weapons proliferation to comment and his response was similar to that of Rubin's, essentially saying it was "likely an Iskander that Iran had purchased from Russia." According to Arms World, the "Iskander-E missile fully complies with the provisions of the missile technology non-proliferation agreement", which prohibits increasing "in the number of engaged targets per unit of time". It's doubtful that Iran tested a new invisible missile today and even less likely as Rubin notes, that they "could cook up such a sophisticated missile indigenously."

Then, over the weekend, Iran claimed to have tested a super-fast underwater missile.

The new missile is among the world's fastest and can outpace an enemy warship, Gen. Ali Fadavi of the country's elite Revolutionary Guards told state television.

General Fadavi said only one other country, Russia, had a missile that moved underwater as fast as the Iranian one, which he said had a speed of about 225 miles per hour. State television showed what it described as the missile being fired.

"The missile carries a very powerful warhead that enables it to operate against groups of warships and big submarines," he said.

He contended that the boats that would launch the missile were able to evade detection systems but that "even if an enemy's warship sonar can detect the missile, no warship can escape from this missile because of its high speed."

Again, from Security Watchtower,

The Iranian military did not name the "new" weapon or give its effective range, but again there are serious questions about whether Iran's $ 9 billion defense budget and defense industry could produce such a weapon indingenously. Like the doubts raised about Iran's development of an invisible missile with multiple warheads, this "new" torpedo is likely a Russian-made VA-111 Shkval, which travels at 230 mph, has a range of 7,500 yards and is primarily used in a defensive counter-attack role. China is believed to have purchased 40 of the torpedos from Russia during the 1990s, though this remains unconfirmed. In the event Russia did sell this high tech weaponry to Iran, and not just allow them to use one in a test, it would be alarming.

These claims of miracle weapons are likely a bluff, designed to make policy makers think twice before trying to swallow the inflated, tough-looking Iranian Pufferfish.

That Iran feels a need to make such claims does indicate that Iran is nervous about what the West might do in coming months. The UN Security Council is unlikely to produce anything that would get Iran's attention, but the US and Israel have been consistent in not taking the military option off the table. And as is so often the case in that part of the world, the threat of force is something regimes there understand.

The Counterterrorism Blog has news that would seem to indicate Iran has been planning for international opposition for awhile. A regime willing to spark a confrontation is not likely to respond to the pleas of diplomats. Now imagine this regime armed with nuclear weapons.

In fact some proof of Iran's preparations against possible sanctions were given two days ago by the Swiss daily La Liberte. Since last fall, rumors of Iran's transfer of assets from European institutions to Arab ones have been numerous. But La Liberte affirmed that they have confirmed that at least 250 tons of gold were transferred from Credit Suisse Zurich in three charter planes of Iran Air in October and November. The initial info came from an Iranian Communist opposition group which provided the Swiss daily with records from the Central Bank of Iran pertaining about that gold transfer. La Liberte confirmed this information with credible Swiss sources and even Credit Suisse did not deny it.

The opposition group is claiming that up to 700 tons of gold and $20 billion were actually transferred out of Switzerland during last fall. That group also stated that during a fall meeting of the Iranian leadership under the auspices of Ayatollah Khameini other conclusions were reached. Some of them are: the continuation of the enrichment of uranium, the necessary Iranian help the USA is going to need in Iraq, the US's lack of resolve re Iran after the Iraqi experience, the weakness of the Israeli leadership... This leading to the conclusion that Iran must seize the opportunity now and move forward.

So the transfer of assets in Swiss banks was decided then. Allegedly this money and gold made it to mostly Dubai and Abu Dhabi banks, some of which are owned by Ayatollah Rafsanjani and Russian financiers. Lastly Asian financial institutions received some of these assets: it is not by chance that Iranian president Ahmadinejad announced in February a $2 billion deal to build a refinery in Indonesia.

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