India: a growing power
With its growing economy and strengthing military, India is a rising power in South Asia. Today there is news that India is taking another step toward becoming a world player.
India views the Central Asian nations as important to its national security, and has been involved militarily there before, especially since 9/11 in helping fight the war on terror.
In fact, India has already had a military presence at Farkhor for a few years.
However, this base in Tajikistan is more about projecting Indian power, and in particular, it is about the race for oil and gas supplies in Central Asia.
The base is a key location. Near the border with Afghanistan, it sits nestled up against the western slopes of the mountains in SW Tajkistan, at the end of flat bowl-shaped area that pushes east into the mountains, and opens up to the west into the rich Dauletabad oil and gas field of Turkmenistan.
It serves to "encircle" Pakistan in a sense. It puts Indian jets on the other side of Pakistan from India. Also, the aircraft are not that far from China. These nations will certainly keep a wary eye on India's military deployments. India is taking bold steps to put its military in key strategic positions.
For instance, the Turkemenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) gas pipeline project has been in the works for some time. The project was formalized in 2002 in Islamabad, and India was invited to participate in 2003. The pipeline would be extended to India.
The pipeline would run from the Dauletabad fields, through Afghanistan and into Pakistan, and then onto India. However, instability in Afghanistan casts a shadow over the project. With the Taliban in Afghanistan, the security of the pipeline is questionable. The pipeline would then run through Balochistan in Pakistan, and as readers here know, that province has its own brand of unrest, and existing pipelines there have already been attacked.
India is worried that with the pipeline passing through Pakistan first, Pakistan would be in a position to interdict the gas before it could get to India.
With this base at Farkhor, Indian forces would not be far from where the pipeline would enter Afghanistan, and so could be in a position, in the event of a crisis, to choke off the gas before it got to Pakistan.
In addition, if events Afghanistan and Pakistan remained so unstable that this pipeline route was infeasible, a possible alternative northern route could take the pipeline right near this bowl, and through Tajikistan and northern Afghanistan, into Pakistan from the north.
This RFE/RL article outlines the issues involved.
The stumbling blocks referred to are security in Afghanistan, and gas price hikes in Turkmenistan that involve Russia.
Another wrinkle to the Farkhor move involves electricity. Pakistan would like to get more electricity from Tajikistan, which was valuable hydroelectric resources. A strong presence in Tajikistan gives India the ability to disrupt Pakistan's power supply from Tajikistan.
All in all, a significant move for India.
Indian Prime Ministers visit to Tajikistan signifies India first step to becoming a true super power. India is to open its first overseas military base this year in the impoverished central Asian country of Tajikistan - a testament to its emerging status on the world stage.
According to media reports, The Indian air force will station up to two squadrons of MiG-29s at the refurbished former Soviet airbase of Farkhor more than 60 miles from the Tajik capital of Dushanbe, Jane's Defence Weekly said, citing defence officials. A control tower is already in place, Indian media reported.
India views the Central Asian nations as important to its national security, and has been involved militarily there before, especially since 9/11 in helping fight the war on terror.
In fact, India has already had a military presence at Farkhor for a few years.
However, this base in Tajikistan is more about projecting Indian power, and in particular, it is about the race for oil and gas supplies in Central Asia.
The base is a key location. Near the border with Afghanistan, it sits nestled up against the western slopes of the mountains in SW Tajkistan, at the end of flat bowl-shaped area that pushes east into the mountains, and opens up to the west into the rich Dauletabad oil and gas field of Turkmenistan.
It serves to "encircle" Pakistan in a sense. It puts Indian jets on the other side of Pakistan from India. Also, the aircraft are not that far from China. These nations will certainly keep a wary eye on India's military deployments. India is taking bold steps to put its military in key strategic positions.
For instance, the Turkemenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) gas pipeline project has been in the works for some time. The project was formalized in 2002 in Islamabad, and India was invited to participate in 2003. The pipeline would be extended to India.
The pipeline would run from the Dauletabad fields, through Afghanistan and into Pakistan, and then onto India. However, instability in Afghanistan casts a shadow over the project. With the Taliban in Afghanistan, the security of the pipeline is questionable. The pipeline would then run through Balochistan in Pakistan, and as readers here know, that province has its own brand of unrest, and existing pipelines there have already been attacked.
India is worried that with the pipeline passing through Pakistan first, Pakistan would be in a position to interdict the gas before it could get to India.
With this base at Farkhor, Indian forces would not be far from where the pipeline would enter Afghanistan, and so could be in a position, in the event of a crisis, to choke off the gas before it got to Pakistan.
In addition, if events Afghanistan and Pakistan remained so unstable that this pipeline route was infeasible, a possible alternative northern route could take the pipeline right near this bowl, and through Tajikistan and northern Afghanistan, into Pakistan from the north.
This RFE/RL article outlines the issues involved.
On the receiving end, India's reluctance to rely on gas from a pipeline crossing the territory of archrival Pakistan had proved to be a major stumbling block. However, the recent authorization given by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for his country to explore several possibilities to transport much-needed natural gas to India has rekindled interest in the TAP project.
Indian Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar told reporters in January that by looking at the region's map "you may accuse me of dreaming, but as a minister I am paid to dream." Aiyar added, "We have the Bangladesh-Burma [Myanmar] pipeline, we are looking at a pipeline from Iran that would cross Pakistan, and we want a pipeline from Turkmenistan that would cross Afghanistan and Pakistan," "Platts Energy Economist" reported on 1 February.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose country is eager to get the TAP project under way, told visiting Indian External Affairs Minister Kunwar Natwar Singh on 15 February that his country hopes New Delhi will look favorably at the trans-Afghan pipeline. A press release from Karzai's office indicated that pipeline would bring "significant economic benefit to Afghanistan and the region."
But before Karzai and his Indian and Pakistani partners begin to celebrate economic prosperity and a constructive new phase in the elusive New Delhi-Islamabad partnership, several stumbling blocks need to be cleared.
The stumbling blocks referred to are security in Afghanistan, and gas price hikes in Turkmenistan that involve Russia.
Another wrinkle to the Farkhor move involves electricity. Pakistan would like to get more electricity from Tajikistan, which was valuable hydroelectric resources. A strong presence in Tajikistan gives India the ability to disrupt Pakistan's power supply from Tajikistan.
All in all, a significant move for India.
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