Afghanistan's pipe dream

As Spring passes by in Afghanistan, Taliban activity is increasing, both in Afghanistan and across the border in Pakistan's tribal areas. C.S. Scott at Security Watchtower has done a nice job keeping track of the brisk pace of events.

This past week, Operation Mountain Lion got under way, one of the largest operations in Afghanistan since October 2001.

But despite the uptick in Taliban violence, Afghanistan still dreams of normal economic activity. A pipeline running from Turkmenistan to Pakistan is contemplated to run through Afghanistan.

However, the insecurity there may make such a project very difficult. In addition, the increasing violence in Pakistan's Baluchistan may also make the pipeline project infeasible for the time being.

The deal has been signed, the partners agreed. Within the next two years, Afghan government officials say, construction will begin on a major gas pipeline that will extend from energy-rich Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan, and perhaps on to India.

But even before the ink had dried on the mid-February agreement in Ashgabat, analysts were second-guessing the deal. Despite the brave face shown by the major players, this latest plan could follow several early versions into oblivion – and for the same reason, that instability in Afghanistan casts doubt over any infrastructure project, especially such a big one.

The pipeline is slated to go through Farah, Kandahar, and Helmand – all provinces where Taleban insurgents carry out violent attacks on government troops and institutions on a daily basis.

Once the pipeline clears Afghan territory, it will run into Baluchistan, an area of Pakistan that is now witnessing a bloody insurgency of its own.

The Asian Development Bank, ADB, which is putting together funding for the project, has conducted a survey of the security situation. ADB mission head Brian Fawcett says extra funding will be built into the costings to ensure the pipeline remains safe.

"The security situation is good; we have no problems," said Fawcett.

The pipeline would be protected from terrorist attack by increasing the strength of the tubing and burying it at least two metres underground, he added. But it is not yet clear what the additional security measures will add to a deal already estimated at 3.7 billion US dollars.

"We are still studying the costs involved," said Fawcett.

But once the plan is under way, responsibility for security will pass to the governments through whose territory the pipeline runs.

Afghan defence ministry spokesman General Zahir Azimi acknowledges the security challenges inherent in the project, but says his ministry will be able to put effective measures in place to prevent sabotage.

The partnership between violence and diminished economic opportunities is a cruel one. Areas that need investment cannot attract it due to those with other agendas.

Given the stakes, the governments and other players involved may be willing to gamble that security will indeed improve in coming years.

"There are enormous benefits here. Afghanistan could earn millions of dollars, Pakistan would get the gas it needs, and Turkmenistan would have an alternative to the Russian market," said Qayoum Babak, chief editor of the Jahan-e-Naw (New World) monthly in Mazar-e-Sharif.

But he went on to warn, "These benefits have confused the countries involved, as well as the oil companies. They have lost touch with reality."

Before anyone starts laying the pipeline, potential investors will want to be sure there is going to be enough gas to fill it. Turkmenistan claims it has immense reserves of gas, but no one had seen any data to back this up until this year. In February, the Turkmen government announced that an audit conducted by United States consultants DeGolyer and MacNaughton indicated that the Dauletabad field – slated to be the main source for the Trans-Afghan Pipeline – contained 4.5 trillion cubic metres of gas, higher than previous estimates.

Much now depends on Dauletabad's reserves proving as rich as the headline figures suggest, because at current levels estimated at 60-65 billion cubic metres, gas production in Turkmenistan will nowhere near enough even to meet the commitments it has been making to Russia, Ukraine, Iran and – for 2009 onwards – China.

According to Latifi, the Bridas official, the future economic benefits for Afghanistan should be enough to change the minds of those who are currently hostile to the pipeline. "We are not linked to any particular group,” he said. "But we will convince all those who oppose the extension of the pipeline that the project will be good for everybody."

This argument does not sway those observers who maintain that the Taleban and the Baluchistan rebels have no interest in improving the situation - quite the reverse, in fact.

"The Taleban are now fighting the Afghan government and the insurgents in Baluchistan are fighting the government of Pakistan. These groups will never allow their enemies to reap the benefits of this project," said Babak.