Embracing India

On Monday Real Clear Politics had an excellent article by Parag Khanna and C. Raja Mohan entitled Getting India Right.

The authors argue at some length that India could be a key US ally in the region, if the US handles the relationship right.

When viewed through the prism of geopolitical shifts, however, Indo-U.S. alignment is if anything long overdue. American military and diplomatic movements from the Middle East through Central Asia to the Pacific Rim are in a state of flux for reasons ranging from the Iraqi insurgency to the Iranian nuclear crisis to the rise of vocal new regional institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and East Asian Community. Asia, where two-thirds of the world’s population resides, is the new geopolitical stage. It is the principal source of the global power shift and will also face most of the political consequences. Yet the constantly shifting loyalties and alliance patterns in Asia confound both historians and experts in geometry. There is the patron-client dyad from Beijing to Islamabad, routine Russian-Chinese-Indian summitry with declarations affirming the need for multipolairty, joint Russo-Japanese and Sino-Russian military maneuvers, talk of a three-cornered nuclear calculus in the U.S.-China-India triangle, and America’s attempt to transcend its historical “tilting” between India and Pakistan. The only clear inference from these asymmetrical configurations is that most Asian states continue to subscribe to an adage common to their cultures: to be polite especially to one’s enemies.

India views itself as an important power in its own right, and would not react well to being taken for granted. India also has other security concerns in the region to balance against close ties to the US. Iran and Pakistan come to mind.

China, however, may be the chief rival for India in the region.

China presents the biggest geopolitical test for both the U.S. and India, and relations with China have always been more decisive for the making of Indian foreign policy than the U.S. has appreciated. Though China currently views Russia, Japan, and India as peer competitors, it seeks to be second to none. After the 1950s-era fraternal mantra of "Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai," India suffered a humiliating military defeat at China’s hands during their 1962 border clashes, ceding the Aksai Chin region of the Himalayas (though it remains disputed still). A 20-year cold war ensued with the glacial process of normalization hampered by the upswing in New Delhi-Moscow relations after the Sino-Soviet split, as well as China’s broadening relations with Pakistan.

Chinese defense ministry white papers do not refer to South Asia as a region of strategic interest, but China’s accelerating effort to build a sphere of influence in Central Asia through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) make it a de facto part of India’s calculus as it seeks to capitalize on a stabilizing Afghanistan to improve trade ties with post-Soviet nations. Furthermore, India feels increasingly encircled by Chinese naval activity in the Bay of Bengal, both through its client Burma and through its massive investment in deepening the Gwadar port in Pakistan’s Sindh province. Despite its current limited resources, India has been determined to engage in quiet competition with China in Southeast Asia even as the region is increasingly drawn towards Beijing. Whether it is growing political cooperation with Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia and Japan or deeper involvement in Burma, India will not simply cede primacy to China in Asia. Chinese efforts to keep India out of the core group directing the creation of an East Asian Community and Beijing’s attempts to undercut India’s primacy in South Asia will remain important spurs to a complex Indian engagement with China.

As China builds up its defense capabilities, and works worldwide to secure petroleum sources, there is a growing edge to relations with the US. This rivalry will play out in Inda, as the US and China each seek to draw India closer, or at least away from the other.

There are other issues addressed in the article, so do read it. India experiences terrorism attacks itself, and with terrorism increasing in neighboring Bangladesh, the usual problems with Pakistand, Jammu and Kashmir, and the troubles with the Maoists in neighboring Nepal, India could be a natural ally in the war on terror.

India is so much more than call centers and software development. We in the United States should be mindful of India's importance to us.

President Bush will be travelling to India, as well as Pakistan, at the beginning of March. Secretary of State Rice will be going with. Certainly the agreement reached last July will be front and center, as will the question of Iran before the UN Security Council. Such high level talks are key to mapping out strategic relationships for the uncertain future.